Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes

• Autore: Lempert Robert J
• Pubblicazione: Santa Monica, CA, : RAND, 2003
• Edizione: 186th ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (211 p.)
• Disciplina: 320/.6/0113
• Soggetto topico: System analysis; Decision making; Information technology
• Altri autori: PopperSteven W. <1953-> BankesSteven C
• Note generali: "MR-1626."
• Nota di contenuto: COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY
• Sommario/riassunto: The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of dec
• Titolo autorizzato: Shaping the next one hundred years
• ISBN: 1-282-45141-3; 9786612451416; 0-8330-3485-5
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910220109303321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II