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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910220109303321 |
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Autore |
Lempert Robert J |
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Titolo |
Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Santa Monica, CA, : RAND, 2003 |
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ISBN |
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1-282-45141-3 |
9786612451416 |
0-8330-3485-5 |
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Edizione |
[186th ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (211 p.) |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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PopperSteven W. <1953-> |
BankesSteven C |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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System analysis |
Decision making |
Information technology |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Nota di contenuto |
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COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a |
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