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010   $a9786612451416
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100   $a20030609d2003      uy         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aShaping the next one hundred years $enew methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography /$fRobert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes
205   $a186th ed.
210   $aSanta Monica, CA $cRAND$d2003
215   $a1 online resource (211 p.)
300   $a"MR-1626."
311   $a0-8330-3275-5 
327   $aCOVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY
330   $aThe checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions.  New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future.  The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA).  Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them.  Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of dec
606   $aSystem analysis
606   $aDecision making
606   $aInformation technology
615  0$aSystem analysis.
615  0$aDecision making.
615  0$aInformation technology.
676   $a320/.6/0113
700   $aLempert$b Robert J$0924033
701   $aPopper$b Steven W.$f1953-$0924034
701   $aBankes$b Steven C$0924035
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910220109303321
996   $aShaping the next one hundred years$92073719
997   $aUNINA