02903nam 2200601 a 450 991022010930332120200520144314.01-282-45141-397866124514160-8330-3485-5(CKB)111090529190250(EBL)197480(OCoLC)475901612(SSID)ssj0000245236(PQKBManifestationID)11174049(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000245236(PQKBWorkID)10175938(PQKB)10056027(Au-PeEL)EBL197480(CaPaEBR)ebr10056160(MiAaPQ)EBC197480(EXLCZ)9911109052919025020030609d2003 uy 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrShaping the next one hundred years new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography /Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes186th ed.Santa Monica, CA RAND20031 online resource (211 p.)"MR-1626."0-8330-3275-5 COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHYThe checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of decSystem analysisDecision makingInformation technologySystem analysis.Decision making.Information technology.320/.6/0113Lempert Robert J924033Popper Steven W.1953-924034Bankes Steven C924035MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910220109303321Shaping the next one hundred years2073719UNINA