Macroeconomic and welfare costs of U.S. fiscal imbalances / / prepared by Bertrand Gruss and Jose L. Torres

• Autore: Gruss Bertrand
• Pubblicazione: [Washington D.C.], : International Monetary Fund, [2012]
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (37 p.)
• Disciplina: 332.1/52
• Soggetto topico: Fiscal policy - United States; Balance of payments - United States
• Altri autori: TorresJose L
• Note generali: "January 2012".
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Preferences; B. Occupational Choice; C. Consumer's Problem; D. Entrepreneur's Problem and Financial Intermediation; E. The Government; F. Aggregates; G. Market Clearance; H. Timing of Events; I. Equilibrium; III. Calibration; IV. The Policy Experiments; A. The Delay Scenario; B. The Adjust Scenarios; V. Results; A. The Long-Run Effects; B. The Transitional Dynamics; C. Overall Welfare Cost of Delaying Fiscal Consolidation; VI. Conclutions; Tables; 1. Calibration ; 2. Non-Interest Expenditures from the U.S. Federal Government as a percentage of GDP (2007)3. Steady State Comparison; Figures; 1. Projections from CBO alternative scenario, Long Term Budget Outlook of 2011; 2. Primary expenditures in the delay and adjust scenarios; 3. Primary deficit in the delay scenario and CBO's forecasts; 4. CBO's Alternative Fiscal Scenario and the Bowles-Simpson Commission's plan; 4. Differences in the percentage of total wealth held by the top percentiles in the delay and passive adjust scenarios ; 5. Discounted sum of utility in steady state by wealth percentiles in delay and passive adjust scenarios6. Model Simulations-Fiscal Variables; 7. Model Simulations-Main Macroeconomic Variables; 8. Share of Entrepreneurs in Economy; 9. Present Discounted Sum of Utility by Deciles; References
• Sommario/riassunto: In this paper we use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to assess the macroeconomic and welfare consequences in the United States of alternative fiscal policies over the medium-term. We find that failing to address the fiscal imbalances associated with current federal fiscal policies for a prolonged period would result in a significant crowding-out of private investment and a severe drag on growth. Compared to adopting a reform that gradually reduces federal debt to its pre-crisis level, postponing debt stabilization for two decades would entail a permanent output loss of about 17 percent and a welfare loss of almost 7 percent of lifetime consumption. Moreover, the long-run welfare gains from the adjustment would more than compensate the initial losses associated with the consolidation period.
• Titolo autorizzato: Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances
• ISBN: 1-4639-8823-0; 1-4639-5149-3
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910819369903321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/038