LEADER 06352oam 22013334 450 001 9910819369903321 005 20240402045048.0 010 $a1-4639-8823-0 010 $a1-4639-5149-3 035 $a(CKB)2550000000106145 035 $a(EBL)1606554 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942153 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11502225 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942153 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10972884 035 $a(PQKB)10775405 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1606554 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10566315 035 $a(OCoLC)776151926 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012038 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012038 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1606554 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000106145 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMacroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances /$fBertrand Gruss, Jose L. Torres 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (37 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"January 2012". 311 $a1-4639-8889-3 311 $a1-4639-3381-9 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Preferences; B. Occupational Choice; C. Consumer's Problem; D. Entrepreneur's Problem and Financial Intermediation; E. The Government; F. Aggregates; G. Market Clearance; H. Timing of Events; I. Equilibrium; III. Calibration; IV. The Policy Experiments; A. The Delay Scenario; B. The Adjust Scenarios; V. Results; A. The Long-Run Effects; B. The Transitional Dynamics; C. Overall Welfare Cost of Delaying Fiscal Consolidation; VI. Conclutions; Tables; 1. Calibration 327 $a2. Non-Interest Expenditures from the U.S. Federal Government as a percentage of GDP (2007)3. Steady State Comparison; Figures; 1. Projections from CBO alternative scenario, Long Term Budget Outlook of 2011; 2. Primary expenditures in the delay and adjust scenarios; 3. Primary deficit in the delay scenario and CBO's forecasts; 4. CBO's Alternative Fiscal Scenario and the Bowles-Simpson Commission's plan; 4. Differences in the percentage of total wealth held by the top percentiles in the delay and passive adjust scenarios 327 $a5. Discounted sum of utility in steady state by wealth percentiles in delay and passive adjust scenarios6. Model Simulations-Fiscal Variables; 7. Model Simulations-Main Macroeconomic Variables; 8. Share of Entrepreneurs in Economy; 9. Present Discounted Sum of Utility by Deciles; References 330 3 $aIn this paper we use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to assess the macroeconomic and welfare consequences in the United States of alternative fiscal policies over the medium-term. We find that failing to address the fiscal imbalances associated with current federal fiscal policies for a prolonged period would result in a significant crowding-out of private investment and a severe drag on growth. Compared to adopting a reform that gradually reduces federal debt to its pre-crisis level, postponing debt stabilization for two decades would entail a permanent output loss of about 17 percent and a welfare loss of almost 7 percent of lifetime consumption. Moreover, the long-run welfare gains from the adjustment would more than compensate the initial losses associated with the consolidation period. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/038 606 $aFiscal policy$zUnited States 606 $aBalance of payments$zUnited States 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aLabor$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policy$2imf 606 $aFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General$2imf 606 $aForecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt$2imf 606 $aEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General$2imf 606 $aDebt$2imf 606 $aDebt Management$2imf 606 $aSovereign Debt$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 606 $aLabor Economics: General$2imf 606 $aLabor Demand$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aLabour$2imf 606 $aincome economics$2imf 606 $aPublic debt$2imf 606 $aFiscal consolidation$2imf 606 $aConsumption$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aSelf-employment$2imf 606 $aDebts, Public$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 606 $aLabor economics$2imf 606 $aSelf-employed$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aFiscal policy 615 0$aBalance of payments 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aLabor 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) 615 7$aFiscal Policy 615 7$aFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General 615 7$aForecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt 615 7$aEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General 615 7$aDebt 615 7$aDebt Management 615 7$aSovereign Debt 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aWealth 615 7$aLabor Economics: General 615 7$aLabor Demand 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aLabour 615 7$aincome economics 615 7$aPublic debt 615 7$aFiscal consolidation 615 7$aConsumption 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aSelf-employment 615 7$aDebts, Public 615 7$aEconomics 615 7$aLabor economics 615 7$aSelf-employed 676 $a332.1/52 700 $aGruss$b Bertrand$01151118 701 $aTorres$b Jose L$0918976 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910819369903321 996 $aMacroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances$93960115 997 $aUNINA