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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910819369903321 |
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Autore |
Gruss Bertrand |
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Titolo |
Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances / / Bertrand Gruss, Jose L. Torres |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
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ISBN |
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1-4639-8823-0 |
1-4639-5149-3 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (37 p.) |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Disciplina |
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Soggetti |
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Fiscal policy - United States |
Balance of payments - United States |
Consumption |
Debt Management |
Debt |
Debts, Public |
Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: General |
Economics |
Fiscal consolidation |
Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: General |
Fiscal Policy |
Fiscal policy |
Forecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and Debt |
Income economics |
Labor Demand |
Labor economics |
Labor Economics: General |
Labor |
Labour |
Macroeconomics |
Macroeconomics: Consumption |
Macroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data) |
National accounts |
Public debt |
Public finance & taxation |
Public Finance |
Saving |
Self-employed |
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Self-employment |
Sovereign Debt |
Wealth |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Preferences; B. Occupational Choice; C. Consumer's Problem; D. Entrepreneur's Problem and Financial Intermediation; E. The Government; F. Aggregates; G. Market Clearance; H. Timing of Events; I. Equilibrium; III. Calibration; IV. The Policy Experiments; A. The Delay Scenario; B. The Adjust Scenarios; V. Results; A. The Long-Run Effects; B. The Transitional Dynamics; C. Overall Welfare Cost of Delaying Fiscal Consolidation; VI. Conclutions; Tables; 1. Calibration |
2. Non-Interest Expenditures from the U.S. Federal Government as a percentage of GDP (2007)3. Steady State Comparison; Figures; 1. Projections from CBO alternative scenario, Long Term Budget Outlook of 2011; 2. Primary expenditures in the delay and adjust scenarios; 3. Primary deficit in the delay scenario and CBO's forecasts; 4. CBO's Alternative Fiscal Scenario and the Bowles-Simpson Commission's plan; 4. Differences in the percentage of total wealth held by the top percentiles in the delay and passive adjust scenarios |
5. Discounted sum of utility in steady state by wealth percentiles in delay and passive adjust scenarios6. Model Simulations-Fiscal Variables; 7. Model Simulations-Main Macroeconomic Variables; 8. Share of Entrepreneurs in Economy; 9. Present Discounted Sum of Utility by Deciles; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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In this paper we use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to assess the macroeconomic and welfare consequences in the United States of alternative fiscal policies over the medium-term. We find that failing to address the fiscal imbalances associated with current federal fiscal policies for a prolonged period would result in a significant crowding-out of private investment and a severe drag on growth. Compared to adopting a reform that gradually reduces federal debt to its pre-crisis level, postponing debt stabilization for two decades would entail a permanent output loss of about 17 percent and a welfare loss of almost 7 percent of lifetime consumption. Moreover, the long-run welfare gains from the adjustment would more than compensate the initial losses associated with the consolidation period. |
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