06352oam 22013334 450 991081936990332120240402045048.01-4639-8823-01-4639-5149-3(CKB)2550000000106145(EBL)1606554(SSID)ssj0000942153(PQKBManifestationID)11502225(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942153(PQKBWorkID)10972884(PQKB)10775405(Au-PeEL)EBL1606554(CaPaEBR)ebr10566315(OCoLC)776151926(IMF)WPIEE2012038(IMF)WPIEA2012038(MiAaPQ)EBC1606554(EXLCZ)99255000000010614520020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrMacroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances /Bertrand Gruss, Jose L. Torres1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (37 p.)IMF Working Papers"January 2012".1-4639-8889-3 1-4639-3381-9 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Preferences; B. Occupational Choice; C. Consumer's Problem; D. Entrepreneur's Problem and Financial Intermediation; E. The Government; F. Aggregates; G. Market Clearance; H. Timing of Events; I. Equilibrium; III. Calibration; IV. The Policy Experiments; A. The Delay Scenario; B. The Adjust Scenarios; V. Results; A. The Long-Run Effects; B. The Transitional Dynamics; C. Overall Welfare Cost of Delaying Fiscal Consolidation; VI. Conclutions; Tables; 1. Calibration2. Non-Interest Expenditures from the U.S. Federal Government as a percentage of GDP (2007)3. Steady State Comparison; Figures; 1. Projections from CBO alternative scenario, Long Term Budget Outlook of 2011; 2. Primary expenditures in the delay and adjust scenarios; 3. Primary deficit in the delay scenario and CBO's forecasts; 4. CBO's Alternative Fiscal Scenario and the Bowles-Simpson Commission's plan; 4. Differences in the percentage of total wealth held by the top percentiles in the delay and passive adjust scenarios5. Discounted sum of utility in steady state by wealth percentiles in delay and passive adjust scenarios6. Model Simulations-Fiscal Variables; 7. Model Simulations-Main Macroeconomic Variables; 8. Share of Entrepreneurs in Economy; 9. Present Discounted Sum of Utility by Deciles; ReferencesIn this paper we use a general equilibrium model with heterogeneous agents to assess the macroeconomic and welfare consequences in the United States of alternative fiscal policies over the medium-term. We find that failing to address the fiscal imbalances associated with current federal fiscal policies for a prolonged period would result in a significant crowding-out of private investment and a severe drag on growth. Compared to adopting a reform that gradually reduces federal debt to its pre-crisis level, postponing debt stabilization for two decades would entail a permanent output loss of about 17 percent and a welfare loss of almost 7 percent of lifetime consumption. Moreover, the long-run welfare gains from the adjustment would more than compensate the initial losses associated with the consolidation period.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/038Fiscal policyUnited StatesBalance of paymentsUnited StatesMacroeconomicsimfPublic FinanceimfLaborimfMacroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)imfFiscal PolicyimfFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: GeneralimfForecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and DebtimfEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: GeneralimfDebtimfDebt ManagementimfSovereign DebtimfMacroeconomics: ConsumptionimfSavingimfWealthimfLabor Economics: GeneralimfLabor DemandimfPublic finance & taxationimfLabourimfincome economicsimfPublic debtimfFiscal consolidationimfConsumptionimfFiscal policyimfNational accountsimfSelf-employmentimfDebts, PublicimfEconomicsimfLabor economicsimfSelf-employedimfUnited StatesimfFiscal policyBalance of paymentsMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceLaborMacroeconomics: Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment: General (includes Measurement and Data)Fiscal PolicyFiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents: GeneralForecasts of Budgets, Deficits, and DebtEconomic Growth and Aggregate Productivity: GeneralDebtDebt ManagementSovereign DebtMacroeconomics: ConsumptionSavingWealthLabor Economics: GeneralLabor DemandPublic finance & taxationLabourincome economicsPublic debtFiscal consolidationConsumptionFiscal policyNational accountsSelf-employmentDebts, PublicEconomicsLabor economicsSelf-employed332.1/52Gruss Bertrand1151118Torres Jose L918976DcWaIMFBOOK9910819369903321Macroeconomic and Welfare Costs of U.S. Fiscal Imbalances3960115UNINA