Vai al contenuto principale della pagina
Titolo: | Blindside [[electronic resource] ] : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / / Francis Fukuyama, editor |
Pubblicazione: | Washington, D.C., : Brookings Institution Press, c2007 |
Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (208 p.) |
Disciplina: | 363.34/7 |
Soggetto topico: | Emergency management - United States |
International relations | |
Soggetto genere / forma: | Electronic books. |
Altri autori: | FukuyamaFrancis |
Note generali: | "An American Interest Book." |
Nota di bibliografia: | Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index. |
Nota di contenuto: | The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index. |
Sommario/riassunto: | "Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. |
Titolo autorizzato: | Blindside |
ISBN: | 1-281-02963-7 |
9786611029630 | |
0-8157-2989-8 | |
Formato: | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
Record Nr.: | 9910457879703321 |
Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
Opac: | Controlla la disponibilità qui |