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[null,null,"Titolo",null,"Blindside [[electronic resource] ] : how to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics / / Francis Fukuyama, editor"]
[null,null,"Pubbl/distr/stampa",null,"Washington, D.C., : Brookings Institution Press, c2007"]
[null,null,"ISBN",null,"1-281-02963-7"]
[{"$nulls":4},"9786611029630"]
[{"$nulls":4},"0-8157-2989-8"]
[null,null,"Descrizione fisica",null,"1 online resource (208 p.)"]
[null,null,"Disciplina",null,"363.34/7"]
[null,null,"Soggetti",null,"Emergency management - United States"]
[{"$nulls":4},"International relations"]
[{"$nulls":4},"Electronic books."]
[null,null,"Lingua di pubblicazione",null,"Inglese"]
[null,null,"Formato",null,"Materiale a stampa"]
[null,null,null,"Livello bibliografico","Monografia"]
[null,null,null,"Note generali","\"An American Interest Book.\""]
[null,null,null,"Nota di bibliografia","Includes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index."]
[null,null,"Nota di contenuto",null,"The challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index."]
[null,null,null,"Sommario/riassunto","\"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating "]
[{"$nulls":4},"necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors\"--Provided by publisher."]