LEADER 00920nam0-22003371i-450 001 990008095540403321 005 20190730130244.0 010 $a88-491-1176-2 035 $a000809554 035 $aFED01000809554 035 $a(Aleph)000809554FED01 035 $a000809554 100 $a20050421d1999----km-y0itay50------ba 101 0 $aita 102 $aIT 105 $ay---j---001y- 200 1 $a<>scienza del paesaggio$fAlessandro Chiusoli 210 $aBologna$cCLUEB$dİ1999 215 $aXII, 395 p.$cill.$d27 cm 225 1 $aManuali scientifici 610 0 $aPaesaggistica 610 0 $aPiante ornamentali 676 $a712$v20$zita 700 1$aChiusoli,$bAlessandro$f<1934- >$010618 801 0$aIT$bUNINA$gRICA$2UNIMARC 901 $aBK 912 $a990008095540403321 952 $a60 712 CHIA 1999$b9898$fFAGBC 959 $aFAGBC 996 $aScienza del paesaggio$977429 997 $aUNINA LEADER 03475nam 22005894a 450 001 9910457879703321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-281-02963-7 010 $a9786611029630 010 $a0-8157-2989-8 035 $a(CKB)1000000000347452 035 $a(EBL)3004460 035 $a(OCoLC)173812431 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000113175 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11133755 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000113175 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10098179 035 $a(PQKB)11676984 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3004460 035 $a(MdBmJHUP)muse35320 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3004460 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10193747 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL102963 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000347452 100 $a20070709d2007 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aBlindside$b[electronic resource] $ehow to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /$fFrancis Fukuyama, editor 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cBrookings Institution Press$dc2007 215 $a1 online resource (208 p.) 300 $a"An American Interest Book." 311 $a0-8157-2990-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index. 327 $aThe challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index. 330 $a"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. 606 $aEmergency management$zUnited States 606 $aInternational relations 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aEmergency management 615 0$aInternational relations. 676 $a363.34/7 701 $aFukuyama$b Francis$0231601 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910457879703321 996 $aBlindside$92446874 997 $aUNINA