LEADER 03475nam 22005894a 450 001 9910457879703321 005 20200520144314.0 010 $a1-281-02963-7 010 $a9786611029630 010 $a0-8157-2989-8 035 $a(CKB)1000000000347452 035 $a(EBL)3004460 035 $a(OCoLC)173812431 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000113175 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11133755 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000113175 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10098179 035 $a(PQKB)11676984 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3004460 035 $a(MdBmJHUP)muse35320 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL3004460 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10193747 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL102963 035 $a(EXLCZ)991000000000347452 100 $a20070709d2007 uy 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 00$aBlindside$b[electronic resource] $ehow to anticipate forcing events and wild cards in global politics /$fFrancis Fukuyama, editor 210 $aWashington, D.C. $cBrookings Institution Press$dc2007 215 $a1 online resource (208 p.) 300 $a"An American Interest Book." 311 $a0-8157-2990-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. [173]-182) and index. 327 $aThe challenges of uncertainty: an introduction / Francis Fukuyama -- Thinking about catastrophe / Richard A. Posner -- Cases: looking back -- Slow surprise: the dynamics of technology synergy / David Landes -- U.S. intelligence estimates of Soviet collapse: reality and perception / Bruce Berkowitz -- Econoshocks: the East Asian crisis case / David Hale -- Cases: looking ahead -- The once and future DARPA / William Bonvillian -- Fueled again? In search of energy security / Gal Luft and Anne Korin -- Emerging infectious diseases: are we prepared? / Scott Barrett -- Forecasting -- Ahead of the curve: anticipating strategic surprise / Peter Schwartz and Doug Randall -- Can scenarios help policymakers be both bold and careful? / Robert Lempert -- Innovation and adaptation: IT examples / Mitchell Waldrop -- What could be -- Cassandra vs. Pollyanna : a debate between James Kurth and Gregg Easterbrook -- Global discontinuities : a discussion with Owen Harries, Itamar Rabinovich, Niall Ferguson, and Scott Barrett -- American scenarios -- A discussion with Walter Russell Mead, Eliot Cohen, Anne Applebaum, Ruth Wedgwood, Bernard-Henry Levy, Peter Schwartz, Josef Joffe, and Francis Fukuyama -- Afterword / Francis Fukuyama -- Contributors -- Index. 330 $a"Focuses on developing analytical tools to anticipate and manage low-probability events. Addresses psychological and institutional obstacles preventing planning for low-probability tragedies and allocating necessary resources. Pinpoints failures---institutional and personal---that allowed events to surprise leaders and examines philosophies and methodologies of forecasting. Discusses low-probability, high-impact contingencies in various sectors"--Provided by publisher. 606 $aEmergency management$zUnited States 606 $aInternational relations 608 $aElectronic books. 615 0$aEmergency management 615 0$aInternational relations. 676 $a363.34/7 701 $aFukuyama$b Francis$0231601 801 0$bMiAaPQ 801 1$bMiAaPQ 801 2$bMiAaPQ 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910457879703321 996 $aBlindside$92446874 997 $aUNINA LEADER 00912nam--2200349---450 001 990001156320203316 005 20220216100412.0 010 $a88-15-05679-3 035 $a000115632 035 $aUSA01000115632 035 $a(ALEPH)000115632USA01 035 $a000115632 100 $a20030620d1996----km-y0itay0103----ba 101 $aita 102 $aIT 105 $a||||||||001yy 200 1 $aCristofano e la peste$fCarlo M. Cipolla 210 $aBologna$cIl mulino$d1996 215 $a91 p.$d21 cm 225 2 $aIntersezioni$v168 410 0$12001$aIntersezioni 461 1$1001-------$12001 606 0 $aPeste 676 $a614.5732 700 1$aCIPOLLA,$bCarlo M.$0300049 801 0$aIT$bsalbc$gISBD 912 $a990001156320203316 951 $aXVII A.A. 2894$b2455 DLAS$cXVII A.A.$d538446 959 $aBK 969 $aCAS 996 $aCristofano e la peste$9500808 997 $aUNISA LEADER 01120nam a2200289 i 4500 001 991001681409707536 008 120420s1995 fr b 001 0 fre d 020 $a2226078592 035 $ab14052714-39ule_inst 040 $aFacoltà SSPT$bita 082 0 $a335.4 100 1 $aMaler, Henri,$d1946-$0476880 245 10$aConvoiter l'impossible :$bl'utopie avec Marx, malgrâe Marx /$cHenri Maler 246 30$aUtopie avec Marx, malgrâe Marx 260 $aParis :$bAlbin Michel,$cc1995 300 $a438 p. ;$c23 cm 440 0$aBibliotháeque Albin Michel, idâees 504 $aContiene riferimenti bibliografici (p. 419-422) 600 17$aMarx, Karl,$d(1818-1883)$xPensiero politico e sociale 600 14$aMarx, Karl,$d1818-1883$xPolitical and social views. 650 4$aUtopia$xFilosofia 907 $a.b14052714$b02-04-14$c20-04-12 912 $a991001681409707536 945 $aLE021 335.40 MAL01.01$g1$i2020000041405$lle021$op$pE40.53$q-$rn$s- $t0$u0$v0$w0$x0$y.i15426786$z21-06-12 996 $aConvoiter l'impossible$9238087 997 $aUNISALENTO 998 $ale020$b20-04-12$cm$da $e-$ffre$gfr $h0$i0