Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey / / Evan Tanner, Issouf Samaké

• Autore: Tanner Evan
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (44 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Debts, Public - Brazil - Econometric models; Debts, Public - Mexico - Econometric models; Debts, Public - Turkey - Econometric models; Fiscal policy - Brazil - Econometric models; Fiscal policy - Mexico - Econometric models; Fiscal policy - Turkey - Econometric models; Banks and Banking; Foreign Exchange; Macroeconomics; Public Finance; Allocative Efficiency; Cost-Benefit Analysis; Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination; Fiscal Policy; Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt; Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects; Public finance & taxation; Currency; Foreign exchange; Finance; Fiscal policy; Public debt; Fiscal sustainability; Exchange rates; Real interest rates; Financial services; Debts, Public; Interest rates
• Soggetto geografico: Brazil
• Altri autori: SamakéIssouf
• Note generali: "December 2006."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. 39-42).
• Nota di contenuto: ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK""; ""III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. BRAZIL, 2000â€?05""; ""V. MEXICO""; ""VI. TURKEY""; ""VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES""; ""REFERENCES""
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
• Titolo autorizzato: Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt
• ISBN: 1-4623-4979-X; 1-4527-0573-9; 1-283-51672-1; 9786613829177; 1-4519-1008-8
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910810745603321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2006/295