05267oam 22013334 450 991081074560332120240410162133.01-4623-4979-X1-4527-0573-91-283-51672-197866138291771-4519-1008-8(CKB)3360000000443843(EBL)3012503(SSID)ssj0000948591(PQKBManifestationID)11561806(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948591(PQKBWorkID)10950783(PQKB)11426773(OCoLC)568151148(IMF)WPIEE2006295(MiAaPQ)EBC3012503(EXLCZ)99336000000044384320020129d2006 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrProbabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey /Evan Tanner, Issouf Samaké1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2006.1 online resource (44 p.)IMF Working Papers"December 2006."1-4518-6555-4 Includes bibliographical references (p. 39-42).""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK""; ""III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. BRAZIL, 2000â€?05""; ""V. MEXICO""; ""VI. TURKEY""; ""VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES""; ""REFERENCES""This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2006/295Debts, PublicBrazilEconometric modelsDebts, PublicMexicoEconometric modelsDebts, PublicTurkeyEconometric modelsFiscal policyBrazilEconometric modelsFiscal policyMexicoEconometric modelsFiscal policyTurkeyEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfPublic FinanceimfAllocative EfficiencyimfCost-Benefit AnalysisimfPolicy ObjectivesimfPolicy Designs and ConsistencyimfPolicy CoordinationimfFiscal PolicyimfDebtimfDebt ManagementimfSovereign DebtimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfPublic finance & taxationimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfFinanceimfFiscal policyimfPublic debtimfFiscal sustainabilityimfExchange ratesimfReal interest ratesimfFinancial servicesimfDebts, PublicimfInterest ratesimfBrazilimfDebts, PublicEconometric models.Debts, PublicEconometric models.Debts, PublicEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Banks and BankingForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceAllocative EfficiencyCost-Benefit AnalysisPolicy ObjectivesPolicy Designs and ConsistencyPolicy CoordinationFiscal PolicyDebtDebt ManagementSovereign DebtInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsPublic finance & taxationCurrencyForeign exchangeFinanceFiscal policyPublic debtFiscal sustainabilityExchange ratesReal interest ratesFinancial servicesDebts, PublicInterest ratesTanner Evan1600324Samaké Issouf1136558IMF Institute.International Monetary Fund.African Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910810745603321Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt3955441UNINA