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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910810745603321 |
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Autore |
Tanner Evan |
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Titolo |
Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : : A Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey / / Evan Tanner, Issouf Samaké |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2006 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-4979-X |
1-4527-0573-9 |
1-283-51672-1 |
9786613829177 |
1-4519-1008-8 |
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Edizione |
[1st ed.] |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (44 p.) |
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Collana |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Soggetti |
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Debts, Public - Brazil - Econometric models |
Debts, Public - Mexico - Econometric models |
Debts, Public - Turkey - Econometric models |
Fiscal policy - Brazil - Econometric models |
Fiscal policy - Mexico - Econometric models |
Fiscal policy - Turkey - Econometric models |
Banks and Banking |
Foreign Exchange |
Macroeconomics |
Public Finance |
Allocative Efficiency |
Cost-Benefit Analysis |
Policy Objectives |
Policy Designs and Consistency |
Policy Coordination |
Fiscal Policy |
Debt |
Debt Management |
Sovereign Debt |
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects |
Public finance & taxation |
Currency |
Foreign exchange |
Finance |
Fiscal policy |
Public debt |
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Fiscal sustainability |
Exchange rates |
Real interest rates |
Financial services |
Debts, Public |
Interest rates |
Brazil |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references (p. 39-42). |
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Nota di contenuto |
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""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK""; ""III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. BRAZIL, 2000�05""; ""V. MEXICO""; ""VI. TURKEY""; ""VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES""; ""REFERENCES"" |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks. |
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