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010   $a1-4527-0573-9
010   $a1-283-51672-1
010   $a9786613829177
010   $a1-4519-1008-8
035   $a(CKB)3360000000443843
035   $a(EBL)3012503
035   $a(SSID)ssj0000948591
035   $a(PQKBManifestationID)11561806
035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000948591
035   $a(PQKBWorkID)10950783
035   $a(PQKB)11426773
035   $a(OCoLC)568151148
035   $a(IMF)WPIEE2006295
035   $a(MiAaPQ)EBC3012503
035   $a(EXLCZ)993360000000443843
100   $a20020129d2006      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aProbabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt : $eA Vector Autoregression Approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey /$fEvan Tanner, Issouf Samaké
205   $a1st ed.
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2006.
215   $a1 online resource (44 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
300   $a"December 2006."
311   $a1-4518-6555-4 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 39-42).
327   $a""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK""; ""III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. BRAZIL, 2000a???05""; ""V. MEXICO""; ""VI. TURKEY""; ""VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES""; ""REFERENCES""
330 3 $aThis paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2006/295
606   $aDebts, Public$zBrazil$xEconometric models
606   $aDebts, Public$zMexico$xEconometric models
606   $aDebts, Public$zTurkey$xEconometric models
606   $aFiscal policy$zBrazil$xEconometric models
606   $aFiscal policy$zMexico$xEconometric models
606   $aFiscal policy$zTurkey$xEconometric models
606   $aBanks and Banking$2imf
606   $aForeign Exchange$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aPublic Finance$2imf
606   $aAllocative Efficiency$2imf
606   $aCost-Benefit Analysis$2imf
606   $aPolicy Objectives$2imf
606   $aPolicy Designs and Consistency$2imf
606   $aPolicy Coordination$2imf
606   $aFiscal Policy$2imf
606   $aDebt$2imf
606   $aDebt Management$2imf
606   $aSovereign Debt$2imf
606   $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf
606   $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf
606   $aCurrency$2imf
606   $aForeign exchange$2imf
606   $aFinance$2imf
606   $aFiscal policy$2imf
606   $aPublic debt$2imf
606   $aFiscal sustainability$2imf
606   $aExchange rates$2imf
606   $aReal interest rates$2imf
606   $aFinancial services$2imf
606   $aDebts, Public$2imf
606   $aInterest rates$2imf
607   $aBrazil$2imf
615  0$aDebts, Public$xEconometric models.
615  0$aDebts, Public$xEconometric models.
615  0$aDebts, Public$xEconometric models.
615  0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models.
615  0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models.
615  0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models.
615  7$aBanks and Banking
615  7$aForeign Exchange
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aPublic Finance
615  7$aAllocative Efficiency
615  7$aCost-Benefit Analysis
615  7$aPolicy Objectives
615  7$aPolicy Designs and Consistency
615  7$aPolicy Coordination
615  7$aFiscal Policy
615  7$aDebt
615  7$aDebt Management
615  7$aSovereign Debt
615  7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
615  7$aPublic finance & taxation
615  7$aCurrency
615  7$aForeign exchange
615  7$aFinance
615  7$aFiscal policy
615  7$aPublic debt
615  7$aFiscal sustainability
615  7$aExchange rates
615  7$aReal interest rates
615  7$aFinancial services
615  7$aDebts, Public
615  7$aInterest rates
700   $aTanner$b Evan$01600324
701   $aSamaké$b Issouf$01136558
712 02$aIMF Institute.
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bAfrican Dept.
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910810745603321
996   $aProbabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt$93955441
997   $aUNINA