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Autore: |
Tanner Evan
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Titolo: |
Probabilistic sustainability of public debt : a vector autoregression approach for Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey / / prepared by Evan Tanner and Issouf Samake
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Pubblicazione: | [Washington, D.C.], : IMF Institute and African Dept., 2006 |
Edizione: | 1st ed. |
Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (44 p.) |
Soggetto topico: | Debts, Public - Brazil - Econometric models |
Debts, Public - Mexico - Econometric models | |
Debts, Public - Turkey - Econometric models | |
Fiscal policy - Brazil - Econometric models | |
Fiscal policy - Mexico - Econometric models | |
Fiscal policy - Turkey - Econometric models | |
Altri autori: |
SamakeIssouf
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Note generali: | "December 2006." |
Nota di bibliografia: | Includes bibliographical references (p. 39-42). |
Nota di contenuto: | ""Contents""; ""I. INTRODUCTION""; ""II. FISCAL SUSTAINABILITY: SOME PREVIOUS WORK""; ""III. OVERVIEW OF OUR METHODOLOGY""; ""IV. BRAZIL, 2000�05""; ""V. MEXICO""; ""VI. TURKEY""; ""VII. SUMMARY AND CONCLUSIONS""; ""APPENDIX ECONOMETRIC METHODOLOGY AND ESTIMATES""; ""REFERENCES"" |
Sommario/riassunto: | This paper examines the sustainability of fiscal policy under uncertainty in three emerging market countries, Brazil, Mexico, and Turkey. For each country, we estimate a vector autoregression (VAR) that includes fiscal and macroeconomic variables. Retrospectively, a historical decomposition shows by how much debt accumulation reflects unsustainable policy, adverse shocks, or both. Prospectively, Monte Carlo techniques reveal the primary surplus that is required to keep the debt/GDP ratio from rising in all but the worst 50 percent, 25 percent, and 10 percent of circumstances. Such a value-at-risk approach presents a clearer menu of policy options than currently used frameworks. |
Titolo autorizzato: | Probabilistic Sustainability of Public Debt ![]() |
ISBN: | 1-4623-4979-X |
1-4527-0573-9 | |
1-283-51672-1 | |
9786613829177 | |
1-4519-1008-8 | |
Formato: | Materiale a stampa ![]() |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
Record Nr.: | 9910810745603321 |
Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
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