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Autore: | Lempert Robert J |
Titolo: | Shaping the next one hundred years : new methods for quantitative, long-term policy analysis and bibliography / / Robert J. Lempert, Steven W. Popper, Steven C. Bankes |
Pubblicazione: | Santa Monica, CA, : RAND, 2003 |
Edizione: | 186th ed. |
Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (211 p.) |
Disciplina: | 320/.6/0113 |
Soggetto topico: | System analysis |
Decision making | |
Information technology | |
Altri autori: | PopperSteven W. <1953-> BankesSteven C |
Note generali: | "MR-1626." |
Nota di contenuto: | COVER; PREFACE; CONTENTS; FIGURES; TABLES; SUMMARY; ACKNOWLEDGMENTS; ABBREVIATIONS; Chapter One - THE CHALLENGE OF LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Two - A HISTORY OF THINKING ABOUT THE FUTURE; Chapter Three - ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Four - A FRAMEWORK FOR SCENARIO GENERATION; Chapter Five - IMPLEMENTING ROBUST DECISIONMAKING; Chapter Six - POLICY-RELEVANT LONG-TERM POLICY ANALYSIS; Chapter Seven - CONCLUSION: MOVING PAST FAMILIAR SHORES; Appendix A - DESCRIPTION OF THE WONDERLAND SCENARIOGENERATOR; Appendix B - ASSESSING ROBUST STRATEGIES; BIBLIOGRAPHY |
Sommario/riassunto: | The checkered history of predicting the future-e.g., ""Man will never fly""-has dissuaded policymakers from considering the long-term effects of decisions. New analytic methods, enabled by modern computers, transform our ability to reason about the future. The authors here demonstrate a quantitative approach to long-term policy analysis (LTPA). Robust methods enable decisionmakers to examine a vast range of futures and design adaptive strategies to be robust across them. Using sustainable development as an example, the authors discuss how these methods apply to LTPA and a wide range of dec |
Titolo autorizzato: | Shaping the next one hundred years |
ISBN: | 1-282-45141-3 |
9786612451416 | |
0-8330-3485-5 | |
Formato: | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
Record Nr.: | 9910220109303321 |
Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
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