Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart
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| Titolo: |
Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart
|
| Pubblicazione: | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009 |
| Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (23 p.) |
| Disciplina: | 336.54 |
| Soggetto topico: | Economic forecasting - Econometric models |
| Time-series analysis | |
| Inflation | |
| Investments: Options | |
| Macroeconomics | |
| Energy: Demand and Supply | |
| Prices | |
| Price Level | |
| Deflation | |
| Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications | |
| Pension Funds | |
| Non-bank Financial Institutions | |
| Financial Instruments | |
| Institutional Investors | |
| Economic Forecasting | |
| Finance | |
| Oil prices | |
| Asset prices | |
| GDP forecasting | |
| Options | |
| National income | |
| Derivative securities | |
| Soggetto geografico: | United States |
| Note generali: | "August 2009." |
| Nota di contenuto: | Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results |
| 2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References | |
| Sommario/riassunto: | This paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors. |
| Titolo autorizzato: | Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart |
| ISBN: | 1-4623-6888-3 |
| 1-4527-4804-7 | |
| 1-282-84389-3 | |
| 9786612843891 | |
| 1-4518-7325-5 | |
| Formato: | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
| Record Nr.: | 9910788228603321 |
| Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
| Opac: | Controlla la disponibilità qui |
Serie:
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2009/178