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010   $a1-282-84389-3
010   $a9786612843891
010   $a1-4518-7325-5
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035   $a(EBL)1608415
035   $a(SSID)ssj0001477421
035   $a(PQKBManifestationID)11818672
035   $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477421
035   $a(PQKBWorkID)11450170
035   $a(PQKB)11762841
035   $a(OCoLC)649426821
035   $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608415
035   $a(IMF)WPIEE2009178
035   $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055330
100   $a20020129d2009      uf             0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 10$aIncorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009.
215   $a1 online resource (23 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
300   $a"August 2009."
311   $a1-4519-1751-1 
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results
327   $a2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; References
330 3 $aThis paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/178
606   $aEconomic forecasting$xEconometric models
606   $aTime-series analysis
606   $aInflation$2imf
606   $aInvestments: Options$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf
606   $aPrices$2imf
606   $aPrice Level$2imf
606   $aDeflation$2imf
606   $aForecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications$2imf
606   $aPension Funds$2imf
606   $aNon-bank Financial Institutions$2imf
606   $aFinancial Instruments$2imf
606   $aInstitutional Investors$2imf
606   $aEconomic Forecasting$2imf
606   $aFinance$2imf
606   $aOil prices$2imf
606   $aAsset prices$2imf
606   $aGDP forecasting$2imf
606   $aOptions$2imf
606   $aNational income$2imf
606   $aDerivative securities$2imf
607   $aUnited States$2imf
615  0$aEconomic forecasting$xEconometric models.
615  0$aTime-series analysis.
615  7$aInflation
615  7$aInvestments: Options
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply
615  7$aPrices
615  7$aPrice Level
615  7$aDeflation
615  7$aForecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications
615  7$aPension Funds
615  7$aNon-bank Financial Institutions
615  7$aFinancial Instruments
615  7$aInstitutional Investors
615  7$aEconomic Forecasting
615  7$aFinance
615  7$aOil prices
615  7$aAsset prices
615  7$aGDP forecasting
615  7$aOptions
615  7$aNational income
615  7$aDerivative securities
676   $a336.54
712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bResearch Dept.
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910788228603321
996   $aIncorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart$93741590
997   $aUNINA