04370oam 22010574 450 991078822860332120230721045722.01-4623-6888-31-4527-4804-71-282-84389-397866128438911-4518-7325-5(CKB)3170000000055330(EBL)1608415(SSID)ssj0001477421(PQKBManifestationID)11818672(PQKBTitleCode)TC0001477421(PQKBWorkID)11450170(PQKB)11762841(OCoLC)649426821(MiAaPQ)EBC1608415(IMF)WPIEE2009178(EXLCZ)99317000000005533020020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrIncorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan ChartWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (23 p.)IMF Working Papers"August 2009."1-4519-1751-1 Contents; I. Introduction; II. Outline of Theory; A. Characterizing the Distribution of Global Growth; Box; 1. The Two-Piece Normal Distribution; B. Constructing Confidence Intervals; III. Using Survey- and Market-Based Information; Figures; 1. Constructing Confidence Intervals; A. Survey-based Measures; B. Market-based Measures; IV. An Example: Forecasting Global Growth; A. Choice of Risk Factors; Tables; 1. Estimated Elasticities and Skewness Coefficients; B. Estimating the Weighting Parameters .; C. Constructing the Fan Chart; D. Interpreting the Results2. Dispersion of Forecasts for GDP and Selected Risk FactorsV. Conclusions; 3. Fan Chart for Global Growth and Skewness of Risk Factors; 4. Fan Chart for Global Growth Based on Direct Estimates of Variance and Skew; ReferencesThis paper develops a simple procedure for incorporating market-based information into the construction of fan charts. Using the International Monetary Fund (IMF)'s global growth forecast as a working example, the paper goes through the theoretical and practical considerations of this new approach. The resulting spreadsheet, which implements the approach, is available upon request from the authors.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/178Economic forecastingEconometric modelsTime-series analysisInflationimfInvestments: OptionsimfMacroeconomicsimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfForecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsimfPension FundsimfNon-bank Financial InstitutionsimfFinancial InstrumentsimfInstitutional InvestorsimfEconomic ForecastingimfFinanceimfOil pricesimfAsset pricesimfGDP forecastingimfOptionsimfNational incomeimfDerivative securitiesimfUnited StatesimfEconomic forecastingEconometric models.Time-series analysis.InflationInvestments: OptionsMacroeconomicsEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesPrice LevelDeflationForecasting and Simulation: Models and ApplicationsPension FundsNon-bank Financial InstitutionsFinancial InstrumentsInstitutional InvestorsEconomic ForecastingFinanceOil pricesAsset pricesGDP forecastingOptionsNational incomeDerivative securities336.54International Monetary Fund.Research Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910788228603321Incorporating Market Information into the Construction of the Fan Chart3741590UNINA