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Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market : : Were Evangelicals Left Behind? / / Christopher Crowe



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Autore: Crowe Christopher Visualizza persona
Titolo: Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market : : Were Evangelicals Left Behind? / / Christopher Crowe Visualizza cluster
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2009
Edizione: 1st ed.
Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (32 p.)
Disciplina: 339.4859
Soggetto topico: Housing - Prices - United States
Evangelicalism
Economics - Religious aspects - Christianity
Actuarial Studies
Asset bubbles
Cultural Economics: Religion
Demographic Economics: General
Demography
Economic & financial crises & disasters
Economic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis
Financial Crises
Financial crises
Financial institutions
Financial Risk Management
Housing prices
Housing Supply and Markets
Housing
Infrastructure
Insurance & actuarial studies
Insurance Companies
Insurance
Macroeconomics
Macroeconomics: Consumption
National accounts
Population & demography
Population and demographics
Population
Prices
Property & real estate
Real Estate
Saving and investment
Saving
Urban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand
Wealth
Soggetto geografico: United States
Note generali: "March 2009".
Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
Nota di contenuto: Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. House Price Volatility and Evangelical Population; 2. Average House Price Growth; II. Evangelicals and House Price Volatility; A. Empirical Specification and Results; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; B. Discussion; 2. Regression Results; III. 9/11 Event Study; IV. Panel Study; A. Model and Predictions; 3. Quarterly House Price Growth and Share of Evangelicals; 4. The Rapture Index and Subcategories; B. Data and Empirical Strategy; 5. The Rapture Index; C. Results and Discussion; 3. Descriptive Statistics; 4. Regression Results
V. End Times Beliefs and Asset Holdings5. Counterfactual Exercise; 6. Regression Results; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendix I. Data Descriptions and Sources
Sommario/riassunto: The recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.
Titolo autorizzato: Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market  Visualizza cluster
ISBN: 1-4623-4064-4
1-4527-2081-9
1-4518-7204-6
1-282-84278-1
9786612842788
Formato: Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
Record Nr.: 9910817533603321
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2009/057