06291oam 22014534 450 991097383250332120250426110524.0978661284278897814623406441462340644978145272081414527208199781451872040145187204697812828427861282842781(CKB)3170000000055214(EBL)1608204(SSID)ssj0000941838(PQKBManifestationID)11585689(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941838(PQKBWorkID)10964046(PQKB)10096703(OCoLC)649716104(MiAaPQ)EBC1608204(IMF)WPIEE2009057(IMF)WPIEA2009057WPIEA2009057(EXLCZ)99317000000005521420020129d2009 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrIrrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market : Were Evangelicals Left Behind? /Christopher Crowe1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2009.1 online resource (32 p.)IMF Working Papers"March 2009".9781451916393 1451916396 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. House Price Volatility and Evangelical Population; 2. Average House Price Growth; II. Evangelicals and House Price Volatility; A. Empirical Specification and Results; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; B. Discussion; 2. Regression Results; III. 9/11 Event Study; IV. Panel Study; A. Model and Predictions; 3. Quarterly House Price Growth and Share of Evangelicals; 4. The Rapture Index and Subcategories; B. Data and Empirical Strategy; 5. The Rapture Index; C. Results and Discussion; 3. Descriptive Statistics; 4. Regression ResultsV. End Times Beliefs and Asset Holdings5. Counterfactual Exercise; 6. Regression Results; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendix I. Data Descriptions and SourcesThe recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2009/057HousingPricesUnited StatesEvangelicalismEconomicsReligious aspectsChristianityActuarial StudiesimfAsset bubblesimfCultural Economics: ReligionimfDemographic Economics: GeneralimfDemographyimfEconomic & financial crises & disastersimfEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisimfFinancial CrisesimfFinancial crisesimfFinancial institutionsimfFinancial Risk ManagementimfHousing pricesimfHousing Supply and MarketsimfHousingimfInfrastructureimfInsurance & actuarial studiesimfInsurance CompaniesimfInsuranceimfMacroeconomicsimfMacroeconomics: ConsumptionimfNational accountsimfPopulation & demographyimfPopulation and demographicsimfPopulationimfPricesimfProperty & real estateimfReal EstateimfSaving and investmentimfSavingimfUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing DemandimfWealthimfUnited StatesimfHousingPricesEvangelicalism.EconomicsReligious aspectsChristianity.Actuarial StudiesAsset bubblesCultural Economics: ReligionDemographic Economics: GeneralDemographyEconomic & financial crises & disastersEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation AnalysisFinancial CrisesFinancial crisesFinancial institutionsFinancial Risk ManagementHousing pricesHousing Supply and MarketsHousingInfrastructureInsurance & actuarial studiesInsurance CompaniesInsuranceMacroeconomicsMacroeconomics: ConsumptionNational accountsPopulation & demographyPopulation and demographicsPopulationPricesProperty & real estateReal EstateSaving and investmentSavingUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing DemandWealth339.4859Crowe Christopher868737DcWaIMFBOOK9910973832503321Irrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market4372633UNINA