LEADER 06291oam 22014534 450 001 9910973832503321 005 20250426110524.0 010 $a9786612842788 010 $a9781462340644 010 $a1462340644 010 $a9781452720814 010 $a1452720819 010 $a9781451872040 010 $a1451872046 010 $a9781282842786 010 $a1282842781 035 $a(CKB)3170000000055214 035 $a(EBL)1608204 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000941838 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11585689 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000941838 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10964046 035 $a(PQKB)10096703 035 $a(OCoLC)649716104 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1608204 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2009057 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2009057 035 $aWPIEA2009057 035 $a(EXLCZ)993170000000055214 100 $a20020129d2009 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aIrrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market : $eWere Evangelicals Left Behind? /$fChristopher Crowe 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2009. 215 $a1 online resource (32 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 300 $a"March 2009". 311 08$a9781451916393 311 08$a1451916396 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aContents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. House Price Volatility and Evangelical Population; 2. Average House Price Growth; II. Evangelicals and House Price Volatility; A. Empirical Specification and Results; Tables; 1. Descriptive Statistics; B. Discussion; 2. Regression Results; III. 9/11 Event Study; IV. Panel Study; A. Model and Predictions; 3. Quarterly House Price Growth and Share of Evangelicals; 4. The Rapture Index and Subcategories; B. Data and Empirical Strategy; 5. The Rapture Index; C. Results and Discussion; 3. Descriptive Statistics; 4. Regression Results 327 $aV. End Times Beliefs and Asset Holdings5. Counterfactual Exercise; 6. Regression Results; VI. Conclusions; References; Appendix I. Data Descriptions and Sources 330 3 $aThe recent housing bust has reignited interest in psychological theories of speculative excess (Shiller, 2007). I investigate this issue by identifying a segment of the U.S. population-evangelical protestants-that may be less prone to speculative motives, and uncover a significant negative relationship between their population share and house price volatility. Evangelicals' focus on Biblical prophecy could account for this difference, since it may enable them to interpret otherwise negative events as containing positive news, dampening the response of house prices to shocks. I provide evidence for this channel using a popular internet measure of "prophetic activity" and a 9/11 event study. I also analyze survey data covering religious beliefs and asset holding, and find that 'end times' beliefs are associated with a one-third decline in net worth, consistent with these beliefs providing a form of psychic insurance (Scheve and Stasavage, 2006a and 2006b) that reduces asset demand. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2009/057 606 $aHousing$xPrices$zUnited States 606 $aEvangelicalism 606 $aEconomics$xReligious aspects$xChristianity 606 $aActuarial Studies$2imf 606 $aAsset bubbles$2imf 606 $aCultural Economics: Religion$2imf 606 $aDemographic Economics: General$2imf 606 $aDemography$2imf 606 $aEconomic & financial crises & disasters$2imf 606 $aEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis$2imf 606 $aFinancial Crises$2imf 606 $aFinancial crises$2imf 606 $aFinancial institutions$2imf 606 $aFinancial Risk Management$2imf 606 $aHousing prices$2imf 606 $aHousing Supply and Markets$2imf 606 $aHousing$2imf 606 $aInfrastructure$2imf 606 $aInsurance & actuarial studies$2imf 606 $aInsurance Companies$2imf 606 $aInsurance$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Consumption$2imf 606 $aNational accounts$2imf 606 $aPopulation & demography$2imf 606 $aPopulation and demographics$2imf 606 $aPopulation$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aProperty & real estate$2imf 606 $aReal Estate$2imf 606 $aSaving and investment$2imf 606 $aSaving$2imf 606 $aUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand$2imf 606 $aWealth$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aHousing$xPrices 615 0$aEvangelicalism. 615 0$aEconomics$xReligious aspects$xChristianity. 615 7$aActuarial Studies 615 7$aAsset bubbles 615 7$aCultural Economics: Religion 615 7$aDemographic Economics: General 615 7$aDemography 615 7$aEconomic & financial crises & disasters 615 7$aEconomic Development: Urban, Rural, Regional, and Transportation Analysis 615 7$aFinancial Crises 615 7$aFinancial crises 615 7$aFinancial institutions 615 7$aFinancial Risk Management 615 7$aHousing prices 615 7$aHousing Supply and Markets 615 7$aHousing 615 7$aInfrastructure 615 7$aInsurance & actuarial studies 615 7$aInsurance Companies 615 7$aInsurance 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Consumption 615 7$aNational accounts 615 7$aPopulation & demography 615 7$aPopulation and demographics 615 7$aPopulation 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aProperty & real estate 615 7$aReal Estate 615 7$aSaving and investment 615 7$aSaving 615 7$aUrban, Rural, and Regional Economics: Housing Demand 615 7$aWealth 676 $a339.4859 700 $aCrowe$b Christopher$0868737 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910973832503321 996 $aIrrational Exuberance in the U.S. Housing Market$94372633 997 $aUNINA