The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes / / Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Elijah Kimani

• Autore: Jaramillo Laura
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (33 pages) : illustrations, tables
• Disciplina: 336.34
• Soggetto topico: Debts, Public; Economic forecasting; Stock-flow analysis; Exports and Imports; Inflation; Public Finance; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General; Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt; International Lending and Debt Problems; Public Administration; Public Sector Accounting and Audits; Price Level; Deflation; Public finance & taxation; International economics; Macroeconomics; Public debt; Debt sustainability analysis; Contingent liabilities; Government debt management; External debt; Public financial management (PFM); Prices; Debts, External; Fiscal policy
• Soggetto geografico: Hungary
• Altri autori: KimaniElijah Mulas-GranadosCarlos
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Sommario/riassunto: What explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing countries. We find that debt spikes are not rare events and their probability increases with time. We then show that large public debt spikes are neither driven by high primary deficits nor by output declines but instead by sizable stock-flow adjustments (SFAs). We also find that SFAs are poorly forecasted, which can affect debt sustainability analyses, and are associated with a higher probability of suffering non-declining debt paths in the aftermath of public debt spikes.
• Titolo autorizzato: The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes
• ISBN: 1-4755-4523-1; 1-4755-4525-8
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910154899003321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2016/202