04064oam 22010814 450 991015489900332120230808205512.01-4755-4523-11-4755-4525-8(CKB)4340000000018107(MiAaPQ)EBC4745305(IMF)WPIEA2016202(EXLCZ)99434000000001810720020129d2016 uf 0engurcnu||||||||rdacontentrdamediardacarrierThe Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes /Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Elijah KimaniWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2016.1 online resource (33 pages) illustrations, tablesIMF Working Papers1-4755-4504-5 Includes bibliographical references.What explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing countries. We find that debt spikes are not rare events and their probability increases with time. We then show that large public debt spikes are neither driven by high primary deficits nor by output declines but instead by sizable stock-flow adjustments (SFAs). We also find that SFAs are poorly forecasted, which can affect debt sustainability analyses, and are associated with a higher probability of suffering non-declining debt paths in the aftermath of public debt spikes.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2016/202Debts, PublicEconomic forecastingStock-flow analysisExports and ImportsimfInflationimfPublic FinanceimfNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: GeneralimfDebtimfDebt ManagementimfSovereign DebtimfInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsimfPublic AdministrationimfPublic Sector Accounting and AuditsimfPrice LevelimfDeflationimfPublic finance & taxationimfInternational economicsimfMacroeconomicsimfPublic debtimfDebt sustainability analysisimfContingent liabilitiesimfGovernment debt managementimfExternal debtimfPublic financial management (PFM)imfPricesimfDebts, PublicimfDebts, ExternalimfFiscal policyimfHungaryimfDebts, Public.Economic forecasting.Stock-flow analysis.Exports and ImportsInflationPublic FinanceNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: GeneralDebtDebt ManagementSovereign DebtInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsPublic AdministrationPublic Sector Accounting and AuditsPrice LevelDeflationPublic finance & taxationInternational economicsMacroeconomicsPublic debtDebt sustainability analysisContingent liabilitiesGovernment debt managementExternal debtPublic financial management (PFM)PricesDebts, PublicDebts, ExternalFiscal policy336.34Jaramillo Laura1094952Mulas-Granados Carlos502576Kimani Elijah1452672DcWaIMFBOOK9910154899003321The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes3654634UNINA