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010   $a1-4755-4523-1
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035   $a(MiAaPQ)EBC4745305
035   $a(IMF)WPIEA2016202
035   $a(EXLCZ)994340000000018107
100   $a20020129d2016      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aurcnu||||||||
181   $2rdacontent
182   $2rdamedia
183   $2rdacarrier
200 14$aThe Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes /$fLaura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Elijah Kimani
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2016.
215   $a1 online resource (33 pages) $cillustrations, tables
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
311   $a1-4755-4504-5 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
330 3 $aWhat explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper  identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing  countries. We find that debt spikes are not rare events and their probability increases with  time. We then show that large public debt spikes are neither driven by high primary deficits  nor by output declines but instead by sizable stock-flow adjustments (SFAs). We also find that  SFAs are poorly forecasted, which can affect debt sustainability analyses, and are associated  with a higher probability of suffering non-declining debt paths in the aftermath of public debt  spikes.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2016/202
606   $aDebts, Public
606   $aEconomic forecasting
606   $aStock-flow analysis
606   $aExports and Imports$2imf
606   $aInflation$2imf
606   $aPublic Finance$2imf
606   $aNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General$2imf
606   $aDebt$2imf
606   $aDebt Management$2imf
606   $aSovereign Debt$2imf
606   $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf
606   $aPublic Administration$2imf
606   $aPublic Sector Accounting and Audits$2imf
606   $aPrice Level$2imf
606   $aDeflation$2imf
606   $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf
606   $aInternational economics$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aPublic debt$2imf
606   $aDebt sustainability analysis$2imf
606   $aContingent liabilities$2imf
606   $aGovernment debt management$2imf
606   $aExternal debt$2imf
606   $aPublic financial management (PFM)$2imf
606   $aPrices$2imf
606   $aDebts, Public$2imf
606   $aDebts, External$2imf
606   $aFiscal policy$2imf
607   $aHungary$2imf
615  0$aDebts, Public.
615  0$aEconomic forecasting.
615  0$aStock-flow analysis.
615  7$aExports and Imports
615  7$aInflation
615  7$aPublic Finance
615  7$aNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
615  7$aDebt
615  7$aDebt Management
615  7$aSovereign Debt
615  7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems
615  7$aPublic Administration
615  7$aPublic Sector Accounting and Audits
615  7$aPrice Level
615  7$aDeflation
615  7$aPublic finance & taxation
615  7$aInternational economics
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aPublic debt
615  7$aDebt sustainability analysis
615  7$aContingent liabilities
615  7$aGovernment debt management
615  7$aExternal debt
615  7$aPublic financial management (PFM)
615  7$aPrices
615  7$aDebts, Public
615  7$aDebts, External
615  7$aFiscal policy
676   $a336.34
700   $aJaramillo$b Laura$01094952
701   $aMulas-Granados$b Carlos$0502576
701   $aKimani$b Elijah$01452672
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910154899003321
996   $aThe Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes$93654634
997   $aUNINA