Spillovers from the rest of the world into Sub-Saharan African countries [[electronic resource] /] / Prepared by Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond and Gustavo Ramirez

• Autore: Drummond Paulo Flavio Nacif <1966->
• Pubblicazione: [Washington, DC], : International monetary fund, African Department, 2009
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (22 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Stocks - Prices - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models; Capital stock - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models; Bank loans - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models
• Soggetto genere / forma: Electronic books.
• Altri autori: RamírezGustavo
• Note generali: "July 2009."
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Contents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth ; 6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes 7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth ; 11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008 VI. Conclusions; Box; References
• Sommario/riassunto: This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external
• Titolo autorizzato: Spillovers from the rest of the world into Sub-Saharan African countries
• ISBN: 1-4623-6182-X; 1-4527-4300-2; 1-282-84368-0; 1-4518-7302-6; 9786612843686
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910464002903321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF working paper ; ; WP/09/155.