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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910464002903321 |
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Autore |
Drummond Paulo Flavio Nacif <1966-> |
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Titolo |
Spillovers from the rest of the world into Sub-Saharan African countries [[electronic resource] /] / Prepared by Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond and Gustavo Ramirez |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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[Washington, DC], : International monetary fund, African Department, 2009 |
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ISBN |
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1-4623-6182-X |
1-4527-4300-2 |
1-282-84368-0 |
1-4518-7302-6 |
9786612843686 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (22 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF working paper ; ; WP/09/155 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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Soggetti |
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Stocks - Prices - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models |
Capital stock - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models |
Bank loans - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models |
Electronic books. |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Contents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth |
6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes 7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub- |
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Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth |
11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008 VI. Conclusions; Box; References |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external |
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