Fiscal foresight and information flows [[electronic resource] /] / Eric M. Leeper, Todd B. Walker, and Shu-Chun Susan Yang

• Autore: Leeper Eric Michael
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C., : International Monetary Fund, c2012
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (66 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Taxation; Fiscal policy; Information theory in economics
• Soggetto genere / forma: Electronic books.
• Altri autori: WalkerTodd B (Todd Bruce) YangShu-Chun Susan <1971->
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Analytical Example; A. The Econometrics of Foresight; Figures; 1. Responses of Capital to Tax Increase; B. Generalizations; III. Quantitative Importance of Foresight; A. Modeling Information Flows; B. Model Descriptions; C. Information Flows and Estimation Bias; Tables; 1. Information Flow Processes; IV. Solving the Problem; 2. Output Multipliers for a Labor Tax Change; A. An Organizing Principle; B. Lines of Attack; 1. The Narrative Approach; 2. Conditioning on Asset Prices; 3. Direct Estimation of DSGE Model; V. Concluding Remarks; Appendices ; I. Simulations Details II. Testing Economic Theory; III. Municipal Bonds and Fiscal Foresight: Additional Results; IV. Assessing the Ex-Ante Approach; References
• Sommario/riassunto: News - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonic
• Titolo autorizzato: Fiscal foresight and information flows
• ISBN: 1-4755-1691-6; 1-4755-5824-4
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910452627803321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: Working paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ; ; working paper no. 14630.