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100   $a20090123d2012      uy             0
101 0 $aeng
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181   $ctxt
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183   $acr
200 10$aFiscal foresight and information flows$b[electronic resource] /$fEric M. Leeper, Todd B. Walker, and Shu-Chun Susan Yang
210   $aWashington, D.C. $cInternational Monetary Fund$dc2012
215   $a1 online resource (66 p.)
225 1 $aIMF working paper ;$v12/153
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4755-7332-4 
311   $a1-4755-0435-7 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Analytical Example; A. The Econometrics of Foresight; Figures; 1. Responses of Capital to Tax Increase; B. Generalizations; III. Quantitative Importance of Foresight; A. Modeling Information Flows; B. Model Descriptions; C. Information Flows and Estimation Bias; Tables; 1. Information Flow Processes; IV. Solving the Problem; 2. Output Multipliers for a Labor Tax Change; A. An Organizing Principle; B. Lines of Attack; 1. The Narrative Approach; 2. Conditioning on Asset Prices; 3. Direct Estimation of DSGE Model; V. Concluding Remarks; Appendices
327   $aI. Simulations Details II. Testing Economic Theory; III. Municipal Bonds and Fiscal Foresight: Additional Results; IV. Assessing the Ex-Ante Approach; References
330   $aNews - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonic
410  0$aWorking paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;$vworking paper no. 14630.
606   $aTaxation
606   $aFiscal policy
606   $aInformation theory in economics
608   $aElectronic books.
615  0$aTaxation.
615  0$aFiscal policy.
615  0$aInformation theory in economics.
700   $aLeeper$b Eric Michael$0970529
701   $aWalker$b Todd B$g(Todd Bruce)$0970530
701   $aYang$b Shu-Chun Susan$f1971-$0970531
712 02$aNational Bureau of Economic Research.
801  0$bMiAaPQ
801  1$bMiAaPQ
801  2$bMiAaPQ
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910452627803321
996   $aFiscal foresight and information flows$92205934
997   $aUNINA