03382nam 2200649Ia 450 991045262780332120200520144314.01-4755-1691-61-4755-5824-4(CKB)2550000000107544(EBL)1606796(SSID)ssj0000953126(PQKBManifestationID)11551737(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000953126(PQKBWorkID)10910203(PQKB)10773241(MiAaPQ)EBC1606796(Au-PeEL)EBL1606796(CaPaEBR)ebr10579630(OCoLC)795743660(EXLCZ)99255000000010754420090123d2012 uy 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrFiscal foresight and information flows[electronic resource] /Eric M. Leeper, Todd B. Walker, and Shu-Chun Susan YangWashington, D.C. International Monetary Fundc20121 online resource (66 p.)IMF working paper ;12/153Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-7332-4 1-4755-0435-7 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. Analytical Example; A. The Econometrics of Foresight; Figures; 1. Responses of Capital to Tax Increase; B. Generalizations; III. Quantitative Importance of Foresight; A. Modeling Information Flows; B. Model Descriptions; C. Information Flows and Estimation Bias; Tables; 1. Information Flow Processes; IV. Solving the Problem; 2. Output Multipliers for a Labor Tax Change; A. An Organizing Principle; B. Lines of Attack; 1. The Narrative Approach; 2. Conditioning on Asset Prices; 3. Direct Estimation of DSGE Model; V. Concluding Remarks; AppendicesI. Simulations Details II. Testing Economic Theory; III. Municipal Bonds and Fiscal Foresight: Additional Results; IV. Assessing the Ex-Ante Approach; ReferencesNews - or foresight - about future economic fundamentals can create rational expectations equilibria with non-fundamental representations that pose substantial challenges to econometric efforts to recover the structural shocks to which economic agents react. Using tax policies as a leading example of foresight, simple theory makes transparent the economic behavior and information structures that generate non-fundamental equilibria. Econometric analyses that fail to model foresight will obtain biased estimates of output multipliers for taxes; biases are quantitatively important when two canonicWorking paper series (National Bureau of Economic Research) ;working paper no. 14630.TaxationFiscal policyInformation theory in economicsElectronic books.Taxation.Fiscal policy.Information theory in economics.Leeper Eric Michael970529Walker Todd B(Todd Bruce)970530Yang Shu-Chun Susan1971-970531National Bureau of Economic Research.MiAaPQMiAaPQMiAaPQBOOK9910452627803321Fiscal foresight and information flows2205934UNINA