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Autore: | Drummond Paulo Flavio Nacif <1966-> |
Titolo: | Spillovers from the rest of the world into Sub-Saharan African countries [[electronic resource] /] / Prepared by Paulo Flavio Nacif Drummond and Gustavo Ramirez |
Pubblicazione: | [Washington, DC], : International monetary fund, African Department, 2009 |
Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (22 p.) |
Soggetto topico: | Stocks - Prices - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models |
Capital stock - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models | |
Bank loans - Africa, Sub-Saharan - Econometric models | |
Soggetto genere / forma: | Electronic books. |
Altri autori: | RamírezGustavo |
Note generali: | "July 2009." |
Nota di bibliografia: | Includes bibliographical references. |
Nota di contenuto: | Contents; I. World Growth Spillovers; Figures; 1. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Rest of the World: Real GDP Growth; II. Previous Studies; III. Channels of Transmission; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Total Merchandise Exports by Destinations, 1985 to 2008; 3. Sub-Saharan Africa: Destination of Exports; IV. Quantitative Estimates of Spillovers; 4. Capital Inflows in Sub-Saharan Africa; 5. 3-month Libor to Treasury Bill Rate Spreads and the VIX Index; Tables; 1. GMM Regression Output for SSA Real GDP Growth |
6. Selection of the Optimal Size of Shock for the Absolute Value of Income Effect of Oil Price Changes 7. Percent of Non-Zeros in Variable Measuring Income Effect of Oil Price Changes Greater than 5 Percent; 8. Recursive Estimators of the GMM Model; V. Applications to Sub-Saharan African Countries; 9. Out-of-Sample Forecast: Changes in Growth as Forecasted by WEO and by the Spillover Model for 2008 to 09; 2. Sub-Saharan Africa: Out-of-Sample Real GDP Growth as Forecasted in the WEO and the GMM Model; 10. Spillovers Model and WEO Forecasts Vs. Actual 2008 Real Growth | |
11. Forecasting Errors in WEO and Spillover Model for 2008 VI. Conclusions; Box; References | |
Sommario/riassunto: | This paper investigates the impact of a global slowdown on individual African countries using a series of dynamic panel regressions for countries in the region, relating real growth in domestic output to world growth in trade weighted by partner countries and several control variables: oil prices, non-oil prices, financial variables, and country fixed effects. Estimates are then applied to prepare country-specific simulations. The model, which is shown to estimate well out-of-sample spillover effects in the region, shows that countries in the region are significantly affected by lower external |
Titolo autorizzato: | Spillovers from the rest of the world into Sub-Saharan African countries |
ISBN: | 1-4623-6182-X |
1-4527-4300-2 | |
1-282-84368-0 | |
1-4518-7302-6 | |
9786612843686 | |
Formato: | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
Record Nr.: | 9910464002903321 |
Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
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