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Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina



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Autore: Caceres Carlos Visualizza persona
Titolo: Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina Visualizza cluster
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (23 p.)
Soggetto topico: Petroleum products - Prices
Finance, Public - Middle East
Finance, Public - Africa, North
Investments: Futures
Macroeconomics
Public Finance
Forecasting and Other Model Applications
Financial Forecasting and Simulation
National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy
Energy: Demand and Supply
Prices
Commodity Markets
Public Administration
Public Sector Accounting and Audits
Pension Funds
Non-bank Financial Institutions
Financial Instruments
Institutional Investors
Public finance & taxation
Finance
Oil prices
Commodity price fluctuations
Fiscal risks
Futures
Commodity prices
Public financial management (PFM)
Financial institutions
Fiscal policy
Derivative securities
Soggetto geografico: Qatar
Altri autori: MedinaLeandro  
Note generali: "October 2012" -- verso of t.p.
At head of title : Middle East and Central Asia Department -- verso of t.p.
Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. 18-20).
Nota di contenuto: Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries
3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); References
Sommario/riassunto: The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. .
Titolo autorizzato: Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries  Visualizza cluster
ISBN: 1-4755-9846-7
1-4755-4500-2
1-283-94788-9
Formato: Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
Record Nr.: 9910779594203321
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
Opac: Controlla la disponibilità qui
Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/260