06354oam 22013334 450 991077959420332120230802005954.01-4755-9846-71-4755-4500-21-283-94788-9(CKB)2550000001003753(EBL)1607058(SSID)ssj0000942176(PQKBManifestationID)11585705(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942176(PQKBWorkID)10972830(PQKB)10535922(MiAaPQ)EBC1607058(Au-PeEL)EBL1607058(CaPaEBR)ebr10644327(CaONFJC)MIL426038(OCoLC)818796986(IMF)WPIEE2012260(IMF)WPIEA2012260(EXLCZ)99255000000100375320020129d2012 uf 0engurcn|||||||||txtccrMeasures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries /Carlos Caceres, Leandro MedinaWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (23 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/12/260"October 2012" -- verso of t.p.At head of title : Middle East and Central Asia Department -- verso of t.p.1-61635-557-3 1-4755-3016-1 Includes bibliographical references (p. 18-20).Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); ReferencesThe recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. .IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/260Petroleum productsPricesFinance, PublicMiddle EastFinance, PublicAfrica, NorthInvestments: FuturesimfMacroeconomicsimfPublic FinanceimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfFinancial Forecasting and SimulationimfNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: GeneralimfNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government PolicyimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfCommodity MarketsimfPublic AdministrationimfPublic Sector Accounting and AuditsimfPension FundsimfNon-bank Financial InstitutionsimfFinancial InstrumentsimfInstitutional InvestorsimfPublic finance & taxationimfFinanceimfOil pricesimfCommodity price fluctuationsimfFiscal risksimfFuturesimfCommodity pricesimfPublic financial management (PFM)imfFinancial institutionsimfFiscal policyimfDerivative securitiesimfQatarimfPetroleum productsPrices.Finance, PublicFinance, PublicInvestments: FuturesMacroeconomicsPublic FinanceForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsFinancial Forecasting and SimulationNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: GeneralNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government PolicyEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesCommodity MarketsPublic AdministrationPublic Sector Accounting and AuditsPension FundsNon-bank Financial InstitutionsFinancial InstrumentsInstitutional InvestorsPublic finance & taxationFinanceOil pricesCommodity price fluctuationsFiscal risksFuturesCommodity pricesPublic financial management (PFM)Financial institutionsFiscal policyDerivative securitiesCaceres Carlos882223Medina Leandro1476625International Monetary Fund.Middle East and Central Asia Dept.DcWaIMFBOOK9910779594203321Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries3804910UNINA