LEADER 06354oam 22013334 450 001 9910779594203321 005 20230802005954.0 010 $a1-4755-9846-7 010 $a1-4755-4500-2 010 $a1-283-94788-9 035 $a(CKB)2550000001003753 035 $a(EBL)1607058 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942176 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11585705 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942176 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10972830 035 $a(PQKB)10535922 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607058 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607058 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10644327 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL426038 035 $a(OCoLC)818796986 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012260 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012260 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000001003753 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aurcn||||||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aMeasures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries /$fCarlos Caceres, Leandro Medina 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (23 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/260 300 $a"October 2012" -- verso of t.p. 300 $aAt head of title : Middle East and Central Asia Department -- verso of t.p. 311 $a1-61635-557-3 311 $a1-4755-3016-1 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references (p. 18-20). 327 $aCover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries 327 $a3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); References 330 3 $aThe recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices?that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending?in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. . 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/260 606 $aPetroleum products$xPrices 606 $aFinance, Public$zMiddle East 606 $aFinance, Public$zAfrica, North 606 $aInvestments: Futures$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aPublic Finance$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aFinancial Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General$2imf 606 $aNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aCommodity Markets$2imf 606 $aPublic Administration$2imf 606 $aPublic Sector Accounting and Audits$2imf 606 $aPension Funds$2imf 606 $aNon-bank Financial Institutions$2imf 606 $aFinancial Instruments$2imf 606 $aInstitutional Investors$2imf 606 $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf 606 $aFinance$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aCommodity price fluctuations$2imf 606 $aFiscal risks$2imf 606 $aFutures$2imf 606 $aCommodity prices$2imf 606 $aPublic financial management (PFM)$2imf 606 $aFinancial institutions$2imf 606 $aFiscal policy$2imf 606 $aDerivative securities$2imf 607 $aQatar$2imf 615 0$aPetroleum products$xPrices. 615 0$aFinance, Public 615 0$aFinance, Public 615 7$aInvestments: Futures 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aPublic Finance 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aFinancial Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aNational Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General 615 7$aNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aCommodity Markets 615 7$aPublic Administration 615 7$aPublic Sector Accounting and Audits 615 7$aPension Funds 615 7$aNon-bank Financial Institutions 615 7$aFinancial Instruments 615 7$aInstitutional Investors 615 7$aPublic finance & taxation 615 7$aFinance 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aCommodity price fluctuations 615 7$aFiscal risks 615 7$aFutures 615 7$aCommodity prices 615 7$aPublic financial management (PFM) 615 7$aFinancial institutions 615 7$aFiscal policy 615 7$aDerivative securities 700 $aCaceres$b Carlos$0882223 701 $aMedina$b Leandro$01476625 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund.$bMiddle East and Central Asia Dept. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910779594203321 996 $aMeasures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries$93804910 997 $aUNINA