Oil and the World Economy : : Some Possible Futures / / Michael Kumhof, Dirk Muir
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| Autore: |
Kumhof Michael
|
| Titolo: |
Oil and the World Economy : : Some Possible Futures / / Michael Kumhof, Dirk Muir
|
| Pubblicazione: | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
| Edizione: | 1st ed. |
| Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (32 p.) |
| Disciplina: | 338.2/7282/0904 |
| Soggetto topico: | Petroleum products |
| Economic geography | |
| Investments: Energy | |
| Macroeconomics | |
| Economic Theory | |
| Industries: Energy | |
| Bayesian Analysis: General | |
| Forecasting and Other Model Applications | |
| Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply | |
| Exhaustible Resources and Economic Development | |
| Energy: General | |
| Energy: Demand and Supply | |
| Prices | |
| Price Level | |
| Inflation | |
| Deflation | |
| Agriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis | |
| Macroeconomics: Production | |
| Investment & securities | |
| Economic theory & philosophy | |
| Petroleum, oil & gas industries | |
| Oil | |
| Oil prices | |
| Price elasticity | |
| Demand elasticity | |
| Oil production | |
| Commodities | |
| Economic theory | |
| Production | |
| Petroleum industry and trade | |
| Elasticity | |
| Economics | |
| Soggetto geografico: | United States |
| Altri autori: |
MuirDirk
|
| Note generali: | Description based upon print version of record. |
| Nota di bibliografia: | Includes bibliographical references. |
| Nota di contenuto: | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario |
| C. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario | |
| 7. Technology Externality and Larger Shock Scenarios8. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario | |
| Sommario/riassunto: | This paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult. |
| Titolo autorizzato: | Oil and the World Economy |
| ISBN: | 1-4755-4031-0 |
| 1-4755-3997-5 | |
| 1-283-86673-0 | |
| 1-4755-8835-6 | |
| Formato: | Materiale a stampa  |
| Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
| Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
| Record Nr.: | 9910816522903321 |
| Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
| Opac: | Controlla la disponibilità qui |
Serie:
IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/256