06243oam 22014054 450 991081652290332120240402045729.01-4755-4031-01-4755-3997-51-283-86673-01-4755-8835-6(CKB)2550000000709408(EBL)1607037(SSID)ssj0000942959(PQKBManifestationID)11515165(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942959(PQKBWorkID)10974670(PQKB)11361725(Au-PeEL)EBL1607037(CaPaEBR)ebr10635352(CaONFJC)MIL417923(OCoLC)815561883(IMF)WPIEE2012256(IMF)WPIEA2012256(MiAaPQ)EBC1607037(EXLCZ)99255000000070940820020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrOil and the World Economy : Some Possible Futures /Michael Kumhof, Dirk Muir1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (32 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/12/256Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-8664-7 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity ScenarioC. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario7. Technology Externality and Larger Shock Scenarios8. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity ScenarioThis paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/256Petroleum productsEconomic geographyInvestments: EnergyimfMacroeconomicsimfEconomic TheoryimfIndustries: EnergyimfBayesian Analysis: GeneralimfForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsimfNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and SupplyimfExhaustible Resources and Economic DevelopmentimfEnergy: GeneralimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfPrice LevelimfInflationimfDeflationimfAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfInvestment & securitiesimfEconomic theory & philosophyimfPetroleum, oil & gas industriesimfOilimfOil pricesimfPrice elasticityimfDemand elasticityimfOil productionimfCommoditiesimfEconomic theoryimfProductionimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfElasticityimfEconomicsimfUnited StatesimfPetroleum products.Economic geography.Investments: EnergyMacroeconomicsEconomic TheoryIndustries: EnergyBayesian Analysis: GeneralForecasting and Other Model ApplicationsNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and SupplyExhaustible Resources and Economic DevelopmentEnergy: GeneralEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesPrice LevelInflationDeflationAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand AnalysisMacroeconomics: ProductionInvestment & securitiesEconomic theory & philosophyPetroleum, oil & gas industriesOilOil pricesPrice elasticityDemand elasticityOil productionCommoditiesEconomic theoryProductionPetroleum industry and tradeElasticityEconomics338.2/7282/0904Kumhof Michael1604267Muir Dirk1621919International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910816522903321Oil and the World Economy4032044UNINA