LEADER 06243oam 22014054 450 001 9910816522903321 005 20240402045729.0 010 $a1-4755-4031-0 010 $a1-4755-3997-5 010 $a1-283-86673-0 010 $a1-4755-8835-6 035 $a(CKB)2550000000709408 035 $a(EBL)1607037 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000942959 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11515165 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000942959 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10974670 035 $a(PQKB)11361725 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607037 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10635352 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL417923 035 $a(OCoLC)815561883 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012256 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012256 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607037 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000709408 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 10$aOil and the World Economy : $eSome Possible Futures /$fMichael Kumhof, Dirk Muir 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (32 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/256 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-8664-7 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Model; A. Oil Supply; B. Oil Demand; 1. Baseline Scenario; 2. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 3. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 4. Technology Externality Scenario; C. World Oil Market Equilibrium; D. Calibration; III. Discussion of the Alternative Specifications; A. Entropy Boundary and Falling Elasticity Scenarios; 1. Supply Limitations; 2. Technical Substitutability; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario; C. Technology Externality Scenario; IV. Simulation Results; A. Baseline Scenario; B. Growing Elasticity Scenario 327 $aC. Entropy Boundary Scenario and Falling Elasticity ScenarioD. Technology Externality Scenario; E. Larger Shock Scenario; F. Combined Downside Scenarios; G. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario; H. The Assumption of Unitary Income Elasticity; I. The Assumption of Smooth Reallocation; V. Conclusion; References; Figures; 1. World Crude Oil Production (in million barrels per day); 2. The Entropy Boundary in Factor Space; 3. Baseline Scenario; 4. Growing Elasticity Scenario; 5. Entropy Boundary Scenario; 6. Falling Elasticity Scenario 327 $a7. Technology Externality and Larger Shock Scenarios8. Combined Downside and Growing Elasticity Scenario 330 3 $aThis paper, using a six-region DSGE model of the world economy, assesses the GDP and current account implications of permanent oil supply shocks hitting the world economy at an unspecified future date. For modest-sized shocks and conventional production technologies the effects are modest. But for larger shocks, for elasticities of substitution that decline as oil usage is reduced to a minimum, and for production functions in which oil acts as a critical enabler of technologies, GDP growth could drop significantly. Also, oil prices could become so high that smooth adjustment, as assumed in the model, may become very difficult. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/256 606 $aPetroleum products 606 $aEconomic geography 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aEconomic Theory$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Energy$2imf 606 $aBayesian Analysis: General$2imf 606 $aForecasting and Other Model Applications$2imf 606 $aNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aExhaustible Resources and Economic Development$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aPrice Level$2imf 606 $aInflation$2imf 606 $aDeflation$2imf 606 $aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory & philosophy$2imf 606 $aPetroleum, oil & gas industries$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aPrice elasticity$2imf 606 $aDemand elasticity$2imf 606 $aOil production$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aEconomic theory$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 606 $aElasticity$2imf 606 $aEconomics$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aPetroleum products. 615 0$aEconomic geography. 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aEconomic Theory 615 7$aIndustries: Energy 615 7$aBayesian Analysis: General 615 7$aForecasting and Other Model Applications 615 7$aNonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Demand and Supply 615 7$aExhaustible Resources and Economic Development 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aPrice Level 615 7$aInflation 615 7$aDeflation 615 7$aAgriculture: Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aEconomic theory & philosophy 615 7$aPetroleum, oil & gas industries 615 7$aOil 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aPrice elasticity 615 7$aDemand elasticity 615 7$aOil production 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aEconomic theory 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 615 7$aElasticity 615 7$aEconomics 676 $a338.2/7282/0904 700 $aKumhof$b Michael$01604267 701 $aMuir$b Dirk$01621919 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910816522903321 996 $aOil and the World Economy$94032044 997 $aUNINA