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Autore: | Cashin Paul |
Titolo: | The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy / / Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi, Maziar Raissi |
Pubblicazione: | Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
Edizione: | 1st ed. |
Descrizione fisica: | 1 online resource (42 p.) |
Disciplina: | 332.1/52 |
Soggetto topico: | Petroleum reserves - Economic aspects |
Economics | |
Investments: Energy | |
Econometrics | |
Foreign Exchange | |
Macroeconomics | |
Industries: Energy | |
Time-Series Models | |
Dynamic Quantile Regressions | |
Dynamic Treatment Effect Models | |
Diffusion Processes | |
State Space Models | |
General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation | |
International Business Cycles | |
Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation | |
Energy: Demand and Supply | |
Prices | |
Energy: General | |
Macroeconomics: Production | |
Investment & securities | |
Econometrics & economic statistics | |
Petroleum, oil & gas industries | |
Currency | |
Foreign exchange | |
Oil | |
Oil prices | |
Vector autoregression | |
Oil production | |
Real effective exchange rates | |
Commodities | |
Econometric analysis | |
Production | |
Petroleum industry and trade | |
Soggetto geografico: | United States |
Altri autori: | MohaddesKamiar RaissiMehdi RaissiMaziar |
Note generali: | Description based upon print version of record. |
Nota di bibliografia: | Includes bibliographical references. |
Nota di contenuto: | Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* Models |
Lag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks | |
7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix | |
9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008 | |
Sommario/riassunto: | We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output. |
Titolo autorizzato: | The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy |
ISBN: | 1-4755-2461-7 |
1-4755-9607-3 | |
1-283-86688-9 | |
1-4755-4455-3 | |
Formato: | Materiale a stampa |
Livello bibliografico | Monografia |
Lingua di pubblicazione: | Inglese |
Record Nr.: | 9910816177603321 |
Lo trovi qui: | Univ. Federico II |
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