07472oam 22014654 450 991081617760332120240402045722.01-4755-2461-71-4755-9607-31-283-86688-91-4755-4455-3(CKB)2550000000709423(EBL)1607033(SSID)ssj0000949363(PQKBManifestationID)11509013(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949363(PQKBWorkID)10997650(PQKB)10328861(MiAaPQ)EBC1607033(Au-PeEL)EBL1607033(CaPaEBR)ebr10635358(CaONFJC)MIL417938(OCoLC)815548260(IMF)WPIEE2012253(IMF)WPIEA2012253(EXLCZ)99255000000070942320020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy /Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi, Maziar Raissi1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (42 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/12/253Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-9715-0 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* ModelsLag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/253Petroleum reservesEconomic aspectsEconomicsInvestments: EnergyimfEconometricsimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfIndustries: EnergyimfTime-Series ModelsimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfState Space ModelsimfGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and SimulationimfInternational Business CyclesimfMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and SimulationimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfEnergy: GeneralimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfInvestment & securitiesimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfPetroleum, oil & gas industriesimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfOilimfOil pricesimfVector autoregressionimfOil productionimfReal effective exchange ratesimfCommoditiesimfEconometric analysisimfProductionimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfUnited StatesimfPetroleum reservesEconomic aspects.Economics.Investments: EnergyEconometricsForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsIndustries: EnergyTime-Series ModelsDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsDiffusion ProcessesState Space ModelsGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and SimulationInternational Business CyclesMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and SimulationEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesEnergy: GeneralMacroeconomics: ProductionInvestment & securitiesEconometrics & economic statisticsPetroleum, oil & gas industriesCurrencyForeign exchangeOilOil pricesVector autoregressionOil productionReal effective exchange ratesCommoditiesEconometric analysisProductionPetroleum industry and trade332.1/52Cashin Paul1632384Mohaddes Kamiar1645984Raissi Mehdi1645985Raissi Maziar1699075International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910816177603321The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy4081040UNINA