LEADER 07472oam 22014654 450 001 9910816177603321 005 20240402045722.0 010 $a1-4755-2461-7 010 $a1-4755-9607-3 010 $a1-283-86688-9 010 $a1-4755-4455-3 035 $a(CKB)2550000000709423 035 $a(EBL)1607033 035 $a(SSID)ssj0000949363 035 $a(PQKBManifestationID)11509013 035 $a(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949363 035 $a(PQKBWorkID)10997650 035 $a(PQKB)10328861 035 $a(MiAaPQ)EBC1607033 035 $a(Au-PeEL)EBL1607033 035 $a(CaPaEBR)ebr10635358 035 $a(CaONFJC)MIL417938 035 $a(OCoLC)815548260 035 $a(IMF)WPIEE2012253 035 $a(IMF)WPIEA2012253 035 $a(EXLCZ)992550000000709423 100 $a20020129d2012 uf 0 101 0 $aeng 135 $aur|n|---||||| 181 $ctxt 182 $cc 183 $acr 200 14$aThe Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy /$fPaul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi, Maziar Raissi 205 $a1st ed. 210 1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2012. 215 $a1 online resource (42 p.) 225 1 $aIMF Working Papers 225 0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/12/253 300 $aDescription based upon print version of record. 311 $a1-4755-9715-0 320 $aIncludes bibliographical references. 327 $aCover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* Models 327 $aLag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks 327 $a7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix 327 $a9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008 330 3 $aWe employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2?2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output. 410 0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2012/253 606 $aPetroleum reserves$xEconomic aspects 606 $aEconomics 606 $aInvestments: Energy$2imf 606 $aEconometrics$2imf 606 $aForeign Exchange$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics$2imf 606 $aIndustries: Energy$2imf 606 $aTime-Series Models$2imf 606 $aDynamic Quantile Regressions$2imf 606 $aDynamic Treatment Effect Models$2imf 606 $aDiffusion Processes$2imf 606 $aState Space Models$2imf 606 $aGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aInternational Business Cycles$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation$2imf 606 $aEnergy: Demand and Supply$2imf 606 $aPrices$2imf 606 $aEnergy: General$2imf 606 $aMacroeconomics: Production$2imf 606 $aInvestment & securities$2imf 606 $aEconometrics & economic statistics$2imf 606 $aPetroleum, oil & gas industries$2imf 606 $aCurrency$2imf 606 $aForeign exchange$2imf 606 $aOil$2imf 606 $aOil prices$2imf 606 $aVector autoregression$2imf 606 $aOil production$2imf 606 $aReal effective exchange rates$2imf 606 $aCommodities$2imf 606 $aEconometric analysis$2imf 606 $aProduction$2imf 606 $aPetroleum industry and trade$2imf 607 $aUnited States$2imf 615 0$aPetroleum reserves$xEconomic aspects. 615 0$aEconomics. 615 7$aInvestments: Energy 615 7$aEconometrics 615 7$aForeign Exchange 615 7$aMacroeconomics 615 7$aIndustries: Energy 615 7$aTime-Series Models 615 7$aDynamic Quantile Regressions 615 7$aDynamic Treatment Effect Models 615 7$aDiffusion Processes 615 7$aState Space Models 615 7$aGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aInternational Business Cycles 615 7$aMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation 615 7$aEnergy: Demand and Supply 615 7$aPrices 615 7$aEnergy: General 615 7$aMacroeconomics: Production 615 7$aInvestment & securities 615 7$aEconometrics & economic statistics 615 7$aPetroleum, oil & gas industries 615 7$aCurrency 615 7$aForeign exchange 615 7$aOil 615 7$aOil prices 615 7$aVector autoregression 615 7$aOil production 615 7$aReal effective exchange rates 615 7$aCommodities 615 7$aEconometric analysis 615 7$aProduction 615 7$aPetroleum industry and trade 676 $a332.1/52 700 $aCashin$b Paul$01632384 701 $aMohaddes$b Kamiar$01645984 701 $aRaissi$b Mehdi$01645985 701 $aRaissi$b Maziar$01699075 712 02$aInternational Monetary Fund. 801 0$bDcWaIMF 906 $aBOOK 912 $a9910816177603321 996 $aThe Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy$94081040 997 $aUNINA