Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries / / Carlos Caceres, Leandro Medina

• Autore: Caceres Carlos
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (23 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Petroleum products - Prices; Finance, Public - Middle East; Finance, Public - Africa, North; Investments: Futures; Macroeconomics; Public Finance; Forecasting and Other Model Applications; Financial Forecasting and Simulation; National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General; Nonrenewable Resources and Conservation: Government Policy; Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices; Commodity Markets; Public Administration; Public Sector Accounting and Audits; Pension Funds; Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors; Public finance & taxation; Finance; Oil prices; Commodity price fluctuations; Fiscal risks; Futures; Commodity prices; Public financial management (PFM); Financial institutions; Fiscal policy; Derivative securities
• Soggetto geografico: Qatar
• Altri autori: MedinaLeandro
• Note generali: "October 2012" -- verso of t.p.; At head of title : Middle East and Central Asia Department -- verso of t.p.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. 18-20).
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Abstract; Contents; I. Introduction; Figures; 1. Real Break-Even Prices in Selected Middle East and North African Countries; II. Data and Empirical Methodology; 2. Real Brent Oil Price; III. Main Results and Discussion; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I); 4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); IV. Conclusion; Annex I: Summary Tables; Tables; 1. Projected Nominal Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries; 2. Projected Real Break-Even Prices in Selected MENA Oil-Exporting Countries ; 3. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure I)4. Probability that Brent Oil Prices Fall below the Break-Even Price (measure II); Annex II: Modeling Oil Prices Using Geometric Brownian Motion; Annex III: Stochastic Simulations; 5. Historic and Simulated Real Price of Brent Oil (in logarithm); References
• Sommario/riassunto: The recent relatively high levels of global oil prices have led to a significant improvement in the public finances of several hydrocarbon-exporting countries. However, despite the increase in fiscal buffers, medium-term risks remain high. Fiscal vulnerabilities have increased as a consequence of the substantial spending packages that have been implemented in recent years. This has raised break-even prices—that is, the price levels that ensure that fiscal accounts are in balance at a given level of spending—in these countries. This study analyses such risks and develops measures of fiscal risk stemming from oil price fluctuations. An empirical application to hydrocarbon-exporting countries from the Middle East and North Africa region is included. Additionally, it is noted that countries with large net assets and proven oil reserves are much less vulnerable to fiscal risk than is indicated by standard measures based on break-even prices. .
• Titolo autorizzato: Measures of Fiscal Risk in Hydrocarbon-Exporting Countries
• ISBN: 1-4755-9846-7; 1-4755-4500-2; 1-283-94788-9
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910779594203321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/260