The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy / / Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi, Maziar Raissi

• Autore: Cashin Paul
• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012
• Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (42 p.)
• Soggetto topico: Petroleum reserves - Economic aspects; Economics; Investments: Energy; Econometrics; Foreign Exchange; Macroeconomics; Industries: Energy; Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models; General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation; International Business Cycles; Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation; Energy: Demand and Supply; Prices; Energy: General; Macroeconomics: Production; Investment & securities; Econometrics & economic statistics; Petroleum, oil & gas industries; Currency; Foreign exchange; Oil; Oil prices; Vector autoregression; Oil production; Real effective exchange rates; Commodities; Econometric analysis; Production; Petroleum industry and trade
• Soggetto geografico: United States
• Altri autori: MohaddesKamiar RaissiMehdi RaissiMaziar
• Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
• Nota di contenuto: Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* Models ; Lag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks ; 7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix ; 9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008
• Sommario/riassunto: We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.
• Titolo autorizzato: The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy
• ISBN: 1-4755-2461-7; 1-4755-9607-3; 1-283-86688-9; 1-4755-4455-3
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910779331403321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
• Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2012/253