07427oam 22014414 450 991077933140332120230802005626.01-4755-2461-71-4755-9607-31-283-86688-91-4755-4455-3(CKB)2550000000709423(EBL)1607033(SSID)ssj0000949363(PQKBManifestationID)11509013(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000949363(PQKBWorkID)10997650(PQKB)10328861(MiAaPQ)EBC1607033(Au-PeEL)EBL1607033(CaPaEBR)ebr10635358(CaONFJC)MIL417938(OCoLC)815548260(IMF)WPIEE2012253(IMF)WPIEA2012253(EXLCZ)99255000000070942320020129d2012 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrThe Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy /Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi, Maziar RaissiWashington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2012.1 online resource (42 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/12/253Description based upon print version of record.1-4755-9715-0 Includes bibliographical references.Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* ModelsLag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2012/253Petroleum reservesEconomic aspectsEconomicsInvestments: EnergyimfEconometricsimfForeign ExchangeimfMacroeconomicsimfIndustries: EnergyimfTime-Series ModelsimfDynamic Quantile RegressionsimfDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsimfDiffusion ProcessesimfState Space ModelsimfGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and SimulationimfInternational Business CyclesimfMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and SimulationimfEnergy: Demand and SupplyimfPricesimfEnergy: GeneralimfMacroeconomics: ProductionimfInvestment & securitiesimfEconometrics & economic statisticsimfPetroleum, oil & gas industriesimfCurrencyimfForeign exchangeimfOilimfOil pricesimfVector autoregressionimfOil productionimfReal effective exchange ratesimfCommoditiesimfEconometric analysisimfProductionimfPetroleum industry and tradeimfUnited StatesimfPetroleum reservesEconomic aspects.Economics.Investments: EnergyEconometricsForeign ExchangeMacroeconomicsIndustries: EnergyTime-Series ModelsDynamic Quantile RegressionsDynamic Treatment Effect ModelsDiffusion ProcessesState Space ModelsGeneral Aggregative Models: Forecasting and SimulationInternational Business CyclesMacroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and SimulationEnergy: Demand and SupplyPricesEnergy: GeneralMacroeconomics: ProductionInvestment & securitiesEconometrics & economic statisticsPetroleum, oil & gas industriesCurrencyForeign exchangeOilOil pricesVector autoregressionOil productionReal effective exchange ratesCommoditiesEconometric analysisProductionPetroleum industry and tradeCashin Paul1463968Mohaddes Kamiar1476623Raissi Mehdi1476624Raissi Maziar1559513International Monetary Fund.DcWaIMFBOOK9910779331403321The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy3824724UNINA