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Record Nr. |
UNINA9910779331403321 |
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Autore |
Cashin Paul |
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Titolo |
The Differential Effects of Oil Demand and Supply Shocks on the Global Economy / / Paul Cashin, Kamiar Mohaddes, Mehdi Raissi, Maziar Raissi |
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Pubbl/distr/stampa |
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Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2012 |
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ISBN |
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1-4755-2461-7 |
1-4755-9607-3 |
1-283-86688-9 |
1-4755-4455-3 |
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Descrizione fisica |
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1 online resource (42 p.) |
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Collana |
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IMF Working Papers |
IMF working paper ; ; WP/12/253 |
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Altri autori (Persone) |
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MohaddesKamiar |
RaissiMehdi |
RaissiMaziar |
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Soggetti |
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Petroleum reserves - Economic aspects |
Economics |
Investments: Energy |
Econometrics |
Foreign Exchange |
Macroeconomics |
Industries: Energy |
Time-Series Models |
Dynamic Quantile Regressions |
Dynamic Treatment Effect Models |
Diffusion Processes |
State Space Models |
General Aggregative Models: Forecasting and Simulation |
International Business Cycles |
Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance: Forecasting and Simulation |
Energy: Demand and Supply |
Prices |
Energy: General |
Macroeconomics: Production |
Investment & securities |
Econometrics & economic statistics |
Petroleum, oil & gas industries |
Currency |
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Foreign exchange |
Oil |
Oil prices |
Vector autoregression |
Oil production |
Real effective exchange rates |
Commodities |
Econometric analysis |
Production |
Petroleum industry and trade |
United States |
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Lingua di pubblicazione |
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Formato |
Materiale a stampa |
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Livello bibliografico |
Monografia |
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Note generali |
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Description based upon print version of record. |
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Nota di bibliografia |
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Includes bibliographical references. |
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Nota di contenuto |
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Cover; Contents; I. Introduction; II. The Global VAR (GVAR) Methodology; III. A Global VAR Model Including Major Oil Exporters; Tables; 1. Countries and Regions in the GVAR Model with Major Oil Exporters; A. Variables; Domestic Variables; Foreign Variables; Global Variables; 2. Oil Consumption by Oil Importers, averages over 1979-2010; B. Model Specification; 3. Oil Reserves, Production and Exports of Major Oil Exporters, averages over 2008-2010; C. Country-Specific Estimates and Tests; 4. Variables Specification of the Country-Specific VARX* Models |
Lag Order Selection, Cointegrating Relations, and Persistence Profiles5. Lag Orders of the Country-Specific VARX*(s,s*) Models Together with the Number of Cointegrating Relations (r); Figures; 1. Persistence Profiles of the Effect of a System-wide Shock to the Cointegrating Relations; Testing the Weak Exogeneity Assumption; 6. F-Statistics for Testing the Weak Exogeneity of the Country-Specific Foreign Variables, Oil Prices, and Oil Production; Testing for Structural Breaks; IV. Identification of Oil Shocks |
7. Number of Rejections of the Null of Parameter Constancy per Variable Across the Country-specific Models at the 5 Percent Significance Level8. Identification of Structural Shocks; A. Oil-Supply Shocks; 2. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 3. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OPEC Countries; 4. Impact of Oil-Supply Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; B. Oil-Demand Shocks; 5. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on Major Oil Importers; 6. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OPEC Countries; 7. Impact of Oil-Demand Shocks on OECD Oil Exporters; V. Concluding Remarks; References; Data Appendix |
9. Fixed Trade Weights based on the years 2006-2008 |
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Sommario/riassunto |
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We employ a set of sign restrictions on the generalized impulse responses of a Global VAR model, estimated for 38 countries/regions over the period 1979Q2–2011Q2, to discriminate between supply-driven and demand-driven oil-price shocks and to study the time profile of their macroeconomic effects for different countries. The results indicate that the economic consequences of a supply-driven oil-price shock are very different from those of an oil-demand shock |
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driven by global economic activity, and vary for oil-importing countries compared to energy exporters. While oil importers typically face a long-lived fall in economic activity in response to a supply-driven surge in oil prices, the impact is positive for energy-exporting countries that possess large proven oil/gas reserves. However, in response to an oil-demand disturbance, almost all countries in our sample experience long-run inflationary pressures and a short-run increase in real output. |
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