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The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes / / Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Elijah Kimani



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Autore: Jaramillo Laura Visualizza persona
Titolo: The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes / / Laura Jaramillo, Carlos Mulas-Granados, Elijah Kimani Visualizza cluster
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2016
Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (33 pages) : illustrations, tables
Disciplina: 336.34
Soggetto topico: Debts, Public
Economic forecasting
Stock-flow analysis
Exports and Imports
Inflation
Public Finance
National Budget, Deficit, and Debt: General
Debt
Debt Management
Sovereign Debt
International Lending and Debt Problems
Public Administration
Public Sector Accounting and Audits
Price Level
Deflation
Public finance & taxation
International economics
Macroeconomics
Public debt
Debt sustainability analysis
Contingent liabilities
Government debt management
External debt
Public financial management (PFM)
Prices
Debts, External
Fiscal policy
Soggetto geografico: Hungary
Altri autori: Mulas-GranadosCarlos  
KimaniElijah  
Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
Sommario/riassunto: What explains public debt spikes since the end of WWII? To answer this question, this paper identifies 179 debt spike episodes from 1945 to 2014 across advanced and developing countries. We find that debt spikes are not rare events and their probability increases with time. We then show that large public debt spikes are neither driven by high primary deficits nor by output declines but instead by sizable stock-flow adjustments (SFAs). We also find that SFAs are poorly forecasted, which can affect debt sustainability analyses, and are associated with a higher probability of suffering non-declining debt paths in the aftermath of public debt spikes.
Titolo autorizzato: The Blind Side of Public Debt Spikes  Visualizza cluster
ISBN: 1-4755-4525-8
Formato: Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
Record Nr.: 9910154899003321
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
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Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2016/202