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A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon / / E. Gardner, Julian Di Giovanni



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Autore: Gardner E Visualizza persona
Titolo: A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon / / E. Gardner, Julian Di Giovanni Visualizza cluster
Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C. : , : International Monetary Fund, , 2008
Edizione: 1st ed.
Descrizione fisica: 1 online resource (25 p.)
Disciplina: 336.34
Soggetto topico: Debts, Public - Lebanon - Econometric models
Fiscal policy - Lebanon - Econometric models
Banks and Banking
Exports and Imports
Public Finance
Debt
Debt Management
Sovereign Debt
Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
International Lending and Debt Problems
Fiscal Policy
Public finance & taxation
Finance
International economics
Macroeconomics
Public debt
Debt sustainability analysis
Deposit rates
Fiscal policy
Real interest rates
Debts, Public
Interest rates
Debts, External
Soggetto geografico: Lebanon Economic conditions Econometric models
Lebanon
Altri autori: Di GiovanniJulian  
Note generali: Description based upon print version of record.
Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references.
Nota di contenuto: Contents; I. Introduction; II. Lebanon's Debt Dynamics; III. Methodology; Tables; 1. Standard Deviation of Changes in Monthly Real Short-Term Interest Rates, 1998-2007; A. Construction of the Variance-Covariance Matrix of Shocks; B. Monte Carlo Simulation; IV. Simulation Results; A. Summary Statistics and Simulation Distributions; 2. Standard Deviation of Shocks, 1998-2007; 3. Correlation Matrix of Shocks; Figures; 1a. Distribution of Simulated Values of Real GDP Growth Rate (g): 2008-12; 1b. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Temporary Shocks, 2008 -12
1c. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Permanent Shocks, 2008-121d. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Temporary Shocks, 2008-12; 1e. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Permanent Shocks, 2008-12; B. Fan Charts; 2a. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Temporary Shocks, 2007-12; V. Conclusion; 2b. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Permanent Shocks, 2007-12; Appendix; References
Sommario/riassunto: This paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.
Titolo autorizzato: A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon  Visualizza cluster
ISBN: 1-4623-1140-7
1-4527-0065-6
1-4518-6958-4
1-282-84052-5
9786612840524
Formato: Materiale a stampa
Livello bibliografico Monografia
Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
Record Nr.: 9910813694903321
Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II
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Serie: IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ; ; No. 2008/097