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100   $a20020129d2008      uf         0
101 0 $aeng
135   $aur|n|---|||||
181   $ctxt
182   $cc
183   $acr
200 12$aA Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon /$fE. Gardner, Julian Di Giovanni
205   $a1st ed.
210  1$aWashington, D.C. :$cInternational Monetary Fund,$d2008.
215   $a1 online resource (25 p.)
225 1 $aIMF Working Papers
225  0$aIMF working paper ;$vWP/08/97
300   $aDescription based upon print version of record.
311   $a1-4519-1412-1 
320   $aIncludes bibliographical references.
327   $aContents; I. Introduction; II. Lebanon's Debt Dynamics; III. Methodology; Tables; 1. Standard Deviation of Changes in Monthly Real Short-Term Interest Rates, 1998-2007; A. Construction of the Variance-Covariance Matrix of Shocks; B. Monte Carlo Simulation; IV. Simulation Results; A. Summary Statistics and Simulation Distributions; 2. Standard Deviation of Shocks, 1998-2007; 3. Correlation Matrix of Shocks; Figures; 1a. Distribution of Simulated Values of Real GDP Growth Rate (g): 2008-12; 1b. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Temporary Shocks, 2008 -12
327   $a1c. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Permanent Shocks, 2008-121d. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Temporary Shocks, 2008-12; 1e. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Permanent Shocks, 2008-12; B. Fan Charts; 2a. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Temporary Shocks, 2007-12; V. Conclusion; 2b. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Permanent Shocks, 2007-12; Appendix; References
330 3 $aThis paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.
410  0$aIMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;$vNo. 2008/097
606   $aDebts, Public$zLebanon$xEconometric models
606   $aFiscal policy$zLebanon$xEconometric models
606   $aBanks and Banking$2imf
606   $aExports and Imports$2imf
606   $aPublic Finance$2imf
606   $aDebt$2imf
606   $aDebt Management$2imf
606   $aSovereign Debt$2imf
606   $aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects$2imf
606   $aInternational Lending and Debt Problems$2imf
606   $aFiscal Policy$2imf
606   $aPublic finance & taxation$2imf
606   $aFinance$2imf
606   $aInternational economics$2imf
606   $aMacroeconomics$2imf
606   $aPublic debt$2imf
606   $aDebt sustainability analysis$2imf
606   $aDeposit rates$2imf
606   $aFiscal policy$2imf
606   $aReal interest rates$2imf
606   $aDebts, Public$2imf
606   $aInterest rates$2imf
606   $aDebts, External$2imf
607   $aLebanon$xEconomic conditions$xEconometric models
607   $aLebanon$2imf
615  0$aDebts, Public$xEconometric models.
615  0$aFiscal policy$xEconometric models.
615  7$aBanks and Banking
615  7$aExports and Imports
615  7$aPublic Finance
615  7$aDebt
615  7$aDebt Management
615  7$aSovereign Debt
615  7$aInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
615  7$aInternational Lending and Debt Problems
615  7$aFiscal Policy
615  7$aPublic finance & taxation
615  7$aFinance
615  7$aInternational economics
615  7$aMacroeconomics
615  7$aPublic debt
615  7$aDebt sustainability analysis
615  7$aDeposit rates
615  7$aFiscal policy
615  7$aReal interest rates
615  7$aDebts, Public
615  7$aInterest rates
615  7$aDebts, External
676   $a336.34
700   $aGardner$b E$01673850
701   $aDi Giovanni$b Julian$01673851
801  0$bDcWaIMF
906   $aBOOK
912   $a9910813694903321
996   $aA Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon$94038227
997   $aUNINA