05277oam 22011414 450 991081369490332120240402050130.01-4623-1140-71-4527-0065-61-4518-6958-41-282-84052-59786612840524(CKB)3170000000055007(EBL)1607844(SSID)ssj0000943960(PQKBManifestationID)11473539(PQKBTitleCode)TC0000943960(PQKBWorkID)10977706(PQKB)11696012(OCoLC)815738059(MiAaPQ)EBC1607844(IMF)WPIEE2008097(EXLCZ)99317000000005500720020129d2008 uf 0engur|n|---|||||txtccrA Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon /E. Gardner, Julian Di Giovanni1st ed.Washington, D.C. :International Monetary Fund,2008.1 online resource (25 p.)IMF Working PapersIMF working paper ;WP/08/97Description based upon print version of record.1-4519-1412-1 Includes bibliographical references.Contents; I. Introduction; II. Lebanon's Debt Dynamics; III. Methodology; Tables; 1. Standard Deviation of Changes in Monthly Real Short-Term Interest Rates, 1998-2007; A. Construction of the Variance-Covariance Matrix of Shocks; B. Monte Carlo Simulation; IV. Simulation Results; A. Summary Statistics and Simulation Distributions; 2. Standard Deviation of Shocks, 1998-2007; 3. Correlation Matrix of Shocks; Figures; 1a. Distribution of Simulated Values of Real GDP Growth Rate (g): 2008-12; 1b. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Temporary Shocks, 2008 -121c. Distribution of Simulated Values of Effective Interest Rate (r): Permanent Shocks, 2008-121d. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Temporary Shocks, 2008-12; 1e. Distribution of Simulated Values of Debt-to-GDP Ratio (d): Permanent Shocks, 2008-12; B. Fan Charts; 2a. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Temporary Shocks, 2007-12; V. Conclusion; 2b. Scenario's Debt-to-GDP Ratio Fan Chart: Permanent Shocks, 2007-12; Appendix; ReferencesThis paper applies a simple probabilistic approach to debt sustainability analysis to the case of Lebanon. The paper derives "fan charts" to depict the probability distribution of the government debt to GDP ratio under a medium-term adjustment scenario, as a result of shocks to GDP growth and interest rates. The distribution of shocks is derived from the past shocks to these variables and the related variance covariance. Because we are interested in assessing the sustainability of a particular policy scenario, we do not consider independent fiscal policy shocks or the endogenous policy response to shocks.IMF Working Papers; Working Paper ;No. 2008/097Debts, PublicLebanonEconometric modelsFiscal policyLebanonEconometric modelsBanks and BankingimfExports and ImportsimfPublic FinanceimfDebtimfDebt ManagementimfSovereign DebtimfInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsimfInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsimfFiscal PolicyimfPublic finance & taxationimfFinanceimfInternational economicsimfMacroeconomicsimfPublic debtimfDebt sustainability analysisimfDeposit ratesimfFiscal policyimfReal interest ratesimfDebts, PublicimfInterest ratesimfDebts, ExternalimfLebanonEconomic conditionsEconometric modelsLebanonimfDebts, PublicEconometric models.Fiscal policyEconometric models.Banks and BankingExports and ImportsPublic FinanceDebtDebt ManagementSovereign DebtInterest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and EffectsInternational Lending and Debt ProblemsFiscal PolicyPublic finance & taxationFinanceInternational economicsMacroeconomicsPublic debtDebt sustainability analysisDeposit ratesFiscal policyReal interest ratesDebts, PublicInterest ratesDebts, External336.34Gardner E1673850Di Giovanni Julian1673851DcWaIMFBOOK9910813694903321A Simple Stochastic Approach to Debt Sustainability Applied to Lebanon4038227UNINA