Making climate forecasts matter / / Paul C. Stern and William E. Easterling, editors ; Panel on the Human Dimensions of Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variability, Committee on the Human Dimensions of Global Change, Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education, National Research Council

• Pubblicazione: Washington, D.C., : National Academy Press, c1999
• Edizione: 1st ed.
• Descrizione fisica: xii, 175 p. : ill
• Disciplina: 551.63
• Soggetto topico: Climatic changes - Social aspects; Weather forecasting - Social aspects; Long-range weather forecasts - Social aspects
• Altri autori: SternPaul C. <1944-> EasterlingWilliam E
• Note generali: Bibliographic Level Mode of Issuance: Monograph
• Nota di bibliografia: Includes bibliographical references (p. 142-159) and index.
• Nota di contenuto: Making Climate Forecasts Matter -- Copyright -- Contents -- Preface -- MAKING CLIMATE FORECASTS MATTER -- Summary -- POTENTIAL BENEFITS OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- DISSEMINATION OF CLIMATE FORECAST INFORMATION -- CONSEQUENCES OF CLIMATIC VARIATIONS AND OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- 1 Climate Variability, Climate Forecasting, and Society -- CLIMATE VARIATION AND SOCIETY -- Use of Climate Knowledge to Improve Well-Being -- When Climate Becomes Hazardous -- Climate Sensitivity and Vulnerability -- The Potential Usefulness of Climate Forecasts -- STRUCTURE OF THIS BOOK -- 2 Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- WEATHER AND CLIMATE -- HOW SEASONAL-TO-INTERANNUAL CLIMATE FORECASTS ARE MADE -- The Weather Forecasting Paradigm -- What Is Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Forecasting? -- Why Is Climate Predictable? -- How Have Climate Forecasts Been Made Previously? -- How Are the Forecasts Made by Numerical Models? -- Which Quantities Are Forecast? -- How Are the Forecasts Evaluated? -- How Good Are the Forecasts? -- Problems and Prospects for Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Prediction -- TOWARD USABLE KNOWLEDGE -- From Tropical Pacific SST to Other Quantities -- Uses of ENSO Nowcasts -- Specific ENSO Forecast Needs-Time and Space Resolution -- Using ENSO Forecasts -- Possible New Directions in Climate Forecasting -- Non-ENSO Bases for Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecasts -- The Potential to Develop Leading Climate Indicators -- Processes for Identifying Usable Knowledge -- FINDINGS -- 3 Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climatic Variation -- COPING IN WEATHER-SENSITIVE SECTORS -- Agriculture -- Fishery Management -- Forests and Other Ecosystems -- Water Supply and Flood Management -- Human Health -- Other Weather-Sensitive Sectors -- INSTITUTIONS FOR COPING WITH CLIMATE VARIABILITY -- Disaster Insurance and Reinsurance -- Emergency Preparedness and Response. ; Market Mechanisms -- FINDINGS -- 4 Making Climate Forecast Information More Useful -- USEFUL INFORMATION THAT CLIMATE FORECASTS MIGHT PROVIDE -- RESPONSES TO PAST CLIMATE PREDICTIONS -- Drought Forecasts in the Yakima Valley -- ENSO-based Forecasts in Northeast Brazil, 1991-1992 and 1996 -- The Credibility of Famine Early Warning Systems -- INDIRECT SOURCES OF INSIGHT INTO RESPONSES TO CLIMATE FORECASTS -- Beliefs About Weather and Climate -- Human Information Processing and Climate Information -- Organizational Responses to New Information -- Insights from Analogous Types of Information Transmission -- General Principles for Designing Information Programs -- Alternative Models for Designing Information Programs -- FINDINGS -- 5 Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- ESTIMATING THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE VARIATIONS -- A Conceptual Model of the Effects of Climate Variability -- Current Scientific Capability -- Estimating Biophysical Impacts That Constrain Human Systems -- Research Based on Observations of Decision Making -- Simulations of Decision Making -- Challenges in Estimating the Impacts of Climate Variability -- ESTIMATING THE VALUE OF CLIMATE FORECASTS -- What Kinds of Benefit Can Climate Forecasts Provide? -- A Conceptual Approach to Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- Current Scientific Capability in Valuing Climate Forecasts -- Research Based on the Use of Actual Climate Forecasts -- Simulations of Climate Forecast Value -- Challenges in Estimating the Value of Forecasts -- FINDINGS -- 6 Scientific Priorities -- FINDINGS -- Climate Forecasting and Its Uses -- Coping with Seasonal-to-Interannual Climate Variation -- The Potential of Climate Forecasts -- Measuring the Consequences of Climate Variability and Forecasts -- General -- SCIENTIFIC QUESTIONS -- Potential Benefits of Climate Forecast Information. ; Improved Dissemination of Forecast Information -- Consequences of Climatic Variability and of Forecasts -- The Value of Studying Past Climate Fluctuations and Forecasts -- References -- About the Authors -- Index.
• Sommario/riassunto: El Nino has been with us for centuries, but now we can forcast it, and thus can prepare far in advance for the extreme climatic events it brings. The emerging ability to forecast climate may be of tremendous value to humanity if we learn how to use the information well. How does society cope with seasonal-to-interannual climatic variations? How have climate forecasts been used--and how useful have they been? What kinds of forecast information are needed? Who is likely to benefit from forecasting skill? What are the benefits of better forecasting? This book reviews what we know about these and other questions and identifies research directions toward more useful seasonal-to-interannual climate forecasts. In approaching their recommendations, the panel explores: Vulnerability of human activities to climate. State of the science of climate forecasting. How societies coevolved with their climates and cope with variations in climate. How climate information should be disseminated to achieve the best response. How we can use forecasting to better manage the human consequences of climate change.
• Altri titoli varianti: Climate forecasts
• Titolo autorizzato: Making climate forecasts matter
• ISBN: 9786610185979; 9780309173407; 030917340X; 9781280185977; 128018597X; 9780309593199; 0309593190; 9780585057866; 0585057869
• Formato: Materiale a stampa
• Livello bibliografico: Monografia
• Lingua di pubblicazione: Inglese
• Record Nr.: 9910961763003321
• Lo trovi qui: Univ. Federico II